週日. 1 月 16th, 2022

美國會對中共進行核彈攻擊嗎?

▼美國前天公佈中共在羅布泊秘密進行地下低當量的核爆實驗的證據,違反「全面禁止核試驗條約」。圖為中國去年建政70週年閱兵,解放軍東風41洲際戰略核導彈首次亮相。 (圖/美聯社資料照)

【李重德/專欄報導2020/4/17】 美國前天公佈中共在羅布泊秘密進行地下低當量的核爆實驗的證據,並指責中共違背自己曾簽署的禁止核試爆的條約。 

其實低當量核彈就是所謂的戰術核彈,也就是相當於2萬噸到5萬噸TNT爆炸威力的核武器(二次世界大戰投擲在廣島市的“小男孩”原子彈相當於15,000噸TNT,投擲在長崎市的“’胖子”原子彈相當於20,000噸TNT),它可以裝設在一般的巡弋飛彈上,因此其對集團軍隊與艦隊的危險度甚大。由於它甚小型化,因此也可以用人車來攜行,以進行恐怖活動。

但是中共目前才開始試爆低當量核爆,因此預估距離製造成戰術核彈至少還要十年。而美國擁有全世界最多的戰術核彈,依照美國國會授權,美軍可以對實施生化武器的敵國進行核彈攻擊。美國在在1960、1970年代生產了B61-3、B61-4、B61-7、B61-10和B61-11等5種型號的戰術核彈,前後共生產將近3000多枚,B61-12是2017年開始執行的將5種B61核彈升級的新戰術核彈,每一枚B61-12的造價高達新台幣8.25億元,是核彈家族中最貴的一種。

美國在今年3月舉行的一年一度的「紅旗」軍演中,美軍戰鬥機罕見攜帶了戰術核彈(B61-12型)參加。德國、義大利和西班牙也出動了戰鬥機參加此次演習,這種聯合演練是北約在歐洲核威懾力量的關鍵所在。

B61戰術核彈體型小巧,只有約700磅中,卻蘊藏著巨大的破壞力。B61-12核炸彈配備了多重預設當量的戰鬥部,其中最大的為5萬噸當量,這是二戰時美國向日本長崎投下的「胖子」原子彈爆炸威力的兩倍多。F-15E、F-16和B-2三款戰機都將是該武器的主要搭載平台,並且在2020年將集成到F-35A戰鬥機的作戰系統中。

由於中共自己違反1996年所簽署的《全面禁止核試驗條約》 (Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty,CTBT),證據明確,因此美國很可能在與俄羅斯磋商後而對羅布泊進行核彈攻擊,因為過去蘇聯曾向美國建議聯手攻擊中共羅布泊核彈試爆場,但是為美國所拒絕。然而美國國防部長馬克·埃斯柏昨天明確的說COVID-19確定來自中國的武漢,他希望病毒是來自於自然界。

言下之意,如果證據確定COVID-19來自中共的武漢P4生物實驗室,則美國將把中共視為恐怖組織,必要時可以主動投射核彈。因為中共早於1975年就簽署《禁止生物武器公約》(Biological Weapons Convention,BWC),該條約禁止簽約國研究與持有生物武器。

如果美國覺得要給予中共目前發展生物武器以及戰術核彈一個夠份量的教訓,那麼美國與俄羅斯聯手一起來摧毀中共的羅布泊核彈試驗場是絕對有可能的,因為該處並沒有一般居民,只有軍人與核武科研人員。而且,不只美國,俄羅斯對於中共在羅布泊進行核彈試驗早就芒刺在背,對於中共發展生物武器也認為是針對俄羅斯而來,因此聯手出擊的可能性很高。

                   中國大陸是否會 “北韓化”呢?

【李重德/專欄報導2020/4/17】 中共在面對世界各國對其散播COVID-19病毒的問責時,多次的利用媒體宣稱該病毒來自美國、義大利…等其它國家,這種甩鍋嫁禍他國的做法讓全世界都相當反感。

美國政府在之前只是質疑中共與WHO聯手來讓疫情的資訊不透明,以及故意誤導全球,造成全球各國疏於防範,死傷慘重。

但是,隨著中共的解放軍與漁警船最近在南海及臺灣海峽中的主動挑釁,以及又在羅布泊進行了低當量核試爆,全世界現在已經警惕到中共正在威脅勒索全世界,用的就是“同歸於盡”的手法。

其實,最早使用“同歸於盡”的手法於戰場上的就是日軍,他們一旦在戰場處於下風時,就會使用這種手法,因此才有“神風特攻隊”、“載人魚雷”、“萬歲衝鋒”等戰術。

日本的“同歸於盡”戰術沒能阻擋盟軍的進攻,卻是讓美國決定為了減少戰場上人命的傷亡,以及加速結束戰爭,而分別在日本的廣島與長崎各投下一枚原子彈,分別造成了166,000人與80,000人遇害。

目前全世界因COVID-19病毒而死亡的人數已經超過13萬人,而染病治療中的民眾也超過200萬人。股市的崩跌使得許多人的退休金一夕歸零,全球泰半還處於停工與封城的狀態。

因此,目前由民間自發提出對中共的集體訴訟追索的賠償金額已經高達30兆美元,然而只不過是少數幾個國家的民間行為,未來勢必將有更多的國家人民加入,因此向中共求償的金額可能上看100兆美元。

這些求償的法律程序將在各國進行,然後由各國再向聯合國的仲裁法院提出。然而,一旦在各國法院審理期間以及在判決確定成立的時候,各國都可能對於中國人民在海外的資產加以凍結,這一些資產也將包含國際貿易中的應付給中國廠商的資金。

因此,中國大陸將無法在對世界各國進行國際貿易,至少不能以美元作為交易的計價與支付工具。

屆時,中國大陸可能會透過邊境貿易而與周邊國家進行少量的以人民幣計價的邊境貿易。

這個情況將比“六四天安門事件”之後,全世界對中共進行經濟制裁的情況更嚴峻。因為此時所有外國法院所判決的賠償債權都已經到達了各國人民的手中,他們都將是全體中國人民的債權人。他們會敦促自己國家使用武力來爭取到他們應得的賠償金。

很顯然從中共目前的表現來看,中共已經決定在此國際社會對她不友善態度肇始之初就效法北韓的做法,用“同歸於盡”的態度來威脅震懾世界各國。

據“瑞典斯德哥爾摩國際和平研究所”2017年所公布的研究數據,英國有215枚核彈頭,法國有300枚核彈頭,中共擁有270枚核彈頭,印度約有120至130枚核彈頭,巴基斯坦約有130至140枚核彈頭,以色列有80枚核彈頭(但被否認),朝鮮約有10至20枚核彈頭。但是許多研究機構則認為中共擁有的核彈頭將數倍於此,因為中共從不公佈資訊與接受檢查。

而美國與俄羅斯因為簽訂以多項的限制核武數量的協議,因此美國與俄羅斯大約部署核彈頭數量都不會超過1550枚。

但是華盛頓於2019年2月2日宣布暫停履行《中導條約》義務,啟動退約程序。莫斯科也在3月4日對外宣布停止履行《中導條約》的義務。其實這兩國中止《中導條約》的真正原因就是不能容忍中共大肆增加以中程導彈為載體的核彈頭。

從過去蘇聯曾經在冷戰時期主動要求美國聯手來摧毀中共的羅布泊核彈試驗場的歷史來看,如果中共決定要與所有敵對國家“同歸於盡”的時候,則俄羅斯將很可能會主動先出手來攻擊中共的核武設施,因為這一些核彈頭目前大都裝配在中程導彈上面,只能對中國周邊國家構成威脅,而周邊國家只有俄羅斯是可以威脅到中共。

而中共目前顯然已經在採取“同歸於盡”的前置作業,也就是“鎖國政策”,不只禁止一些外國媒體到中國大陸駐點報導,而且也禁止中國學生負笈外國與臺灣。預測下一階段,中共將會用各種技術性手段來禁止外資企業撤資,也會同時禁止國內資金外逃海外。

試舉一例,臺積電公司昨天舉行法說會,驚艷全球,第一季成長率45%,毛利率51.5%,這個成績是全球第一。其實,今天第一季的工作天數特別少,因此計算起來臺積電公司每天幾乎賺十幾億元。

但是,中國大陸的華為公司說因為政治因素,它要從臺積電公司撤掉訂單來交給在大陸中芯公司去生產。

昨天,臺積電公司在法說會上說明,華為公司撤掉訂單只會影響了臺積電公司營收的1%到2%而已。但是,從此華為公司將不再能取得臺積電公司的先進半導體。

目前,在16奈米的半導體以內的先進製程中,全球只有韓國的三星公司還能少量生產7奈米的半導體,而其餘的市場全部都是臺積電公司的天下。而且臺積電公司5奈米的新廠已經落成開工,3奈米的廠房也正在建設中。

因此華為公司因為政治因素而退出臺積電公司的客戶群中,等於宣告在五年之內將被迫退出5G硬體市場領先地位。這又是一個中共錯誤的“鎖國政策”,但是它完全沒有達到“同歸於盡”的效果,因為華為公司所撤掉的訂單,雖然高達臺積電公司的20%產能,但是馬上就被臺積電公司的其他客戶將其產能爭取過去。

因此,重德 要提醒中共,“同歸於盡”是最蠢的想法,因為當對方發現中共並不理智時,也不講理時,對方會毫不猶疑地先下手為強。

而中共目前的所有作為就是讓世界各國都認為中共會不利於己,這比滿清當年向11個外國宣戰,而招來“八國聯軍”的情況更慘,因為美國、俄羅斯、印度、英國、法國…等國哪一國沒有長程核導彈?

過去,中國大陸人民常用嘲諷的語氣來說北韓人民因為“鎖國政策”所遭遇到的苦難,因此,如果中共要走回“抗美援朝”時的老路子,讓人民回去過“文化大革命”時的生活,中共肯定會先被自己的人民所“同歸於盡”。

重德 認為中共沒有以“同歸於盡”來威脅勒索全世界的本錢,而敗戰不服而肇發的第二次世界大戰,其慘重的代價,讓全球領袖知道不能重蹈第一次世界大戰後戰勝國對戰敗國嚴苛的賠償要求之錯誤。

因此,重德 期盼中共對於COVID-19疫災負起責任,勇敢地承擔必要的賠償責任,勿忘120年前的「庚子拳亂」導致了「八國聯軍」,最後還是導致了「庚子賠款」。

或許因為COVID-19病毒的緣故,中國還必須再給全世界一次的「庚子賠款」,但是請盡可能的避免戰禍,因為中國人民必須活下來,重德 謹此敦請中共放棄“同歸於盡”的思維,而朝著“同歸於好”去努力吧!

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