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\u77ed\u8a55\uff1a\u662f\u5426\u5982\u4f5c\u8005\u6240\u8a00\u76ee\u524d\u72c0\u614b\u662f\u300c\u5c07\u81fa\u7063\u91cd\u65b0\u7f6e\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u9632\u79a6\u4fdd\u8b77\u4e4b\u4e0b\u300d\u4e0a\u4e0d\u5f97\u800c\u77e5\uff0c\u6216\u8a31\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b<\/u>\u8207\u4e2d\u5171<\/u>\u96d9\u65b9\u90fd\u5728\u5c0b\u91c1\u5c0d\u65b9\u60f3\u8981\u5c0d\u5e79\u4e00\u756a\uff0c\u800c\u90fd\u523b\u610f\u9078\u64c7\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u4f86\u4f5c\u70ba\u5f15\u7206\u9ede\u4e5f\u8aaa\u4e0d\u5b9a\u554a\uff01\u4f5c\u8005\u5f15\u7528\u4e86\u5171\u548c\u9ee8<\/u>\u7c4d\u7684\u7f8e\u570b<\/u>\u653f\u6cbb\u5bb6\u6cf0\u5fb7\u7d04\u970d<\/u>(Ted Yoho)2021 \u5e74 4 \u6708 20 \u65e5\u5728\u300c\u81fa\u5317\u6642\u5831\u300d(Taipei Times)\u7684\u6295\u66f8\u300a\u81ea\u7531\u4e16\u754c\u5fc5\u9808\u64c1\u62b1\u81fa\u7063\u300b(Free World Must Embrace Taiwan)\u4e00\u6587\uff0c\u4f86\u8a8d\u5b9a\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u518d\u6b21\u6210\u70ba\u201c\u81ea\u7531\u4e16\u754c\u201d\u7684\u6709\u7528\u524d\u54e8\uff0c\u91cd\u5fb7 \u8a8d\u70ba\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u96d6\u7136\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u64c1\u62b1\u81ea\u7531\u300d(embrace freedom)\u7684\u5bf6\u5cf6\uff0c\u4f46\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u81ea\u7531\u64c1\u62b1\u300d\uff08Free Hugs\uff09\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u8acb\u6240\u6709\u7684\u8a2a\u5ba2\u4e0d\u8981\u5728\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u8eab\u4e0a\u523b\u756b\u4e0b\u300c\u9019\u88e1\u662f\u81ea\u7531\u7684\u524d\u54e8\u7ad9\u300d(This is an outpost of freedom)\u7b49\u6311\u91c1\u5c0d\u5cb8\u7684\u5b57\u8de1\uff01<\/p>\n

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\u77ed\u8a55\uff1a\u5f88\u986f\u7136\u4f5c\u8005\u662f\u8a8d\u70ba\u81fa\u7063\u81ea\u885b\u6230<\/u>\u662f\u201c\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u6230\u722d\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u70ba\u4f55\u4f5c\u8005\u5f9e\u4f86\u6c92\u6709\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e2d\u5171<\/u>\u6253\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u662f\u4e00\u5834\u201c\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u6230\u722d\u201d\u5462\uff1f\u5f88\u986f\u7136\u9019\u662f\u7f8e\u570b<\/u>\u5f9e\u4f86\u4e0d\u8b93\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u6539\u5584\u8207\u4e2d\u5171<\/u>\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u5851\u9020\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u884c\u5c07\u812b\u96e2\u4e2d\u5171<\/u>\u7684\u7d04\u675f\u800c\u5c07\u5be6\u8cea\u7368\u7acb\u7684\u5a01\u8105\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b<\/u>\u751a\u81f3\u4e0d\u5141\u8a31\u7576\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u6230\u6557\u7684\u6642\u5019\u5411\u4e2d\u5171<\/u>\u6295\u964d\uff0c\u800c\u60f3\u8981\u8b93\u81fa\u7063\u4eba\u6c11<\/u>\u90fd\u6230\u6b7b\uff0c\u597d\u4f86\u8b93\u4e2d\u5171<\/u>\u5403\u5927\u8667\u3002\u770b\u4f86\u7f8e\u570b<\/u>\u5c0d\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u7684\u597d\u662f\u8981\u81fa\u7063\u4eba\u6c11<\/u>\u300c\u597d\u597d\u53bb\u6b7b\u5427\uff01\u300d<\/p>\n

\u539f\u6587\uff1a\u300c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5c31\u5176\u672c\u8eab\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9762\u5c0d\u5f37\u5927\u4f46\u6700\u7d42\u6703\u5931\u6557\u7684\u9632\u79a6\u4e4b\u9810\u671f\u662f\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b<\/u>\u7684\u5165\u4fb5\u3002\u300d(\u8a9e\u51fa\u65bc\u3010\u7834\u5de2\u3011\u7ae0\u7bc0\u4e2d)<\/p>\n

\u77ed\u8a55\uff1a\u5f88\u660e\u986f\u4f5c\u8005\u975e\u5e38\u6e05\u695a\u5c31\u7b97\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u8ecd\u6c11\u62b5\u6b7b\u5c0d\u6297\u5165\u4fb5\u7684\u4e2d\u5171\u4eba\u6c11\u89e3\u653e\u8ecd<\/u>\uff0c\u4e5f\u6700\u7d42\u6703\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6839\u672c\u5c31\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u5171<\/u>\u7684\u5165\u4fb5\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u77ed\u8a55\uff1a\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u9019\u4e00\u6bb5\u8a71\u900f\u9732\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b<\/u>\u8981\u6c42\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u9032\u884c\u7126\u571f\u6230\u7565\u8a08\u5283\u7684\u9996\u8981\u76ee\u6a19\u662f\u6467\u6bc0\u81fa\u7a4d\u96fb<\/u>\u7684\u8a2d\u65bd\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b<\/u>\u5df2\u7d93\u6709\u4e86\u5099\u63f4\u7684\u97d3\u570b\u4e09\u661f<\/u>\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u81fa\u7a4d\u96fb<\/u>\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u72a7\u7272\u4e86\u3002\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u7f8e\u570b<\/u>\u771f\u7684\u662f\u5f88\u6368\u5f97\u72a7\u7272\u5225\u4eba\u5bb6\u7684\u5b69\u5b50\u554a\uff01<\/p>\n

\u539f\u6587\uff1a\u300c\u4ed6\u5011\u5fc5\u9808\u7d55\u5c0d\u76f8\u4fe1\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u7684\u534a\u5c0e\u9ad4\u7522\u696d\u6703\u5728\u5165\u4fb5\u6642\u88ab\u6467\u6bc0\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u570b<\/u>\u61f7\u7591\u81fa\u5317<\/u>\u4e0d\u6703\u514c\u73fe\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u5a01\u8105\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5a01\u61fe\u5c31\u6703\u5931\u6557\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u8a2d\u8a08\u4e00\u500b\u81ea\u52d5\u6a5f\u5236\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u78ba\u8a8d\u5165\u4fb5\u5c31\u6703\u89f8\u767c\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u73fe\u5728\u53ef\u4ee5\u8868\u660e\u4ed6\u5011\u4e0d\u6703\u8b93\u9019\u4e9b\u7522\u696d\u843d\u5165\u5c0d\u624b\u4e4b\u624b\u3002\u300d(\u8a9e\u51fa\u65bc\u3010\u7834\u5de2\u3011\u7ae0\u7bc0\u4e2d)<\/p>\n

\u77ed\u8a55\uff1a\u4f5c\u8005\u8981\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u81ea\u6bba\u9084\u7279\u5225\u6307\u5b9a\u670d\u7528\u54ea\u4e00\u7a2e\u6bd2\u85e5\uff0c\u771f\u6148\u60b2\u554a\uff01<\/p>\n

\u539f\u6587\uff1a\u300c\u7f8e\u570b<\/u>\u53ca\u5176\u76df\u570b\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u904e\u5ba3\u5e03\u8a08\u5283\u70ba\u5728\u8a72\u884c\u696d\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u9ad8\u6280\u80fd\u81fa\u7063\u4eba<\/u>\u63d0\u4f9b\u5e87\u8b77\u3001\u8207\u81fa\u5317<\/u>\u5236\u5b9a\u61c9\u6025\u8a08\u5283\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u758f\u6563\u548c\u8655\u7406\u7d93\u71df\u5be6\u9ad4\u534a\u5c0e\u9ad4\u4ee3\u5de5\u5ee0\u7684\u4eba\u529b\u8cc7\u672c\u4f86\u652f\u6301\u9019\u4e00\u52aa\u529b\u3002\u300d(\u8a9e\u51fa\u65bc\u3010\u7834\u5de2\u3011\u7ae0\u7bc0\u4e2d)<\/p>\n

\u77ed\u8a55\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b<\/u>\u70ba\u4f55\u4e0d\u5c0d\u81fa\u7063<\/u>2350\u842c\u4eba\u6c11\u90fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u5e87\u8b77\u5462\uff1f\u9019\u4e9b\u300c\u7d93\u71df\u5be6\u9ad4\u534a\u5c0e\u9ad4\u4ee3\u5de5\u5ee0\u7684\u4eba\u529b\u8cc7\u672c\u300d\u7684\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u83c1\u82f1\u4efd\u5b50\u7b97\u662f\u7f8e\u570b<\/u>\u8207\u4e2d\u5171<\/u>\u5171\u8b00\u300c\u6bc0\u81fa\u300d\u800c\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u8d13\u7269\u55ce\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u539f\u6587\uff1a\u300c\u5982\u679c\u81fa\u5317<\/u>\u5236\u5b9a\u4e26\u516c\u958b\u8a08\u5283\u4f7f\u7528\u5de1\u822a\u5c0e\u5f48\u548c\u5f48\u9053\u5c0e\u5f48\u7784\u6e96\u5927\u9678<\/u>\u7684\u82af\u7247\u751f\u7522\u7dda\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e2d\u82af\u570b\u969b<\/u>\u5728\u4e0a\u6d77<\/u>\u7684\u5de5\u5ee0\uff0c\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u7684\u5a01\u8105\u5c07\u6bd4\u745e\u5178<\/u>\u7684\u5a01\u8105\u66f4\u5927\u3002\u300d(\u8a9e\u51fa\u65bc\u3010\u7834\u5de2\u3011\u7ae0\u7bc0\u4e2d)<\/p>\n

\u77ed\u8a55\uff1a\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u7684\u8ecd\u65b9\u5c0d\u65bc\u6240\u81ea\u88fd\u7684\u5c04\u7a0b\u9054\u4e8c\u5343\u516c\u91cc\u7684\u6578\u767e\u679a\u5c0e\u5f48\u90fd\u8aaa\u660e\u53ea\u6703\u5728\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u88ab\u4e2d\u5171<\/u>\u5c0e\u5f48\u653b\u64ca\u6642\u7528\u4ee5\u53cd\u64ca\u4e2d\u5171<\/u>\u7684\u8ecd\u4e8b\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4f5c\u8005\u986f\u7136\u8a8d\u70ba\u9019\u6a23\u5b50\u9084\u4e0d\u5920\uff0c\u61c9\u8a72\u9084\u8981\u7784\u6e96\u300c\u4e2d\u570b\u5927\u9678\u7684\u82af\u7247\u751f\u7522\u7dda\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e2d\u82af\u570b\u969b\u5728\u4e0a\u6d77\u7684\u5de5\u5ee0\u300d\uff0c\u9019\u54ea\u88e1\u662f\u53e3\u53e3\u8072\u8072\u8aaa\u60f3\u8981\u907f\u514d\u4e2d\u5171<\/u>\u5165\u4fb5\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u7684\u4eba\u6240\u61c9\u8a72\u6709\u7684\u90aa\u60e1\u601d\u60f3\u5462\uff1f\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9019\u4e00\u6bb5\u6587\u5b57\u51f8\u986f\u4e86\u672c\u6587\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u5176\u771f\u6b63\u5fc3\u614b\u5be6\u662f\u9f13\u52d5\u5169\u5cb8\u7684\u6230\u722d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u539f\u6587\uff1a\u300c\u6beb\u7121\u7591\u554f\uff0c\u81fa\u7063\u4eba<\/u>\u6703\u975e\u5e38\u64d4\u5fc3\u7528\u4e00\u5834\u53ef\u80fd\u7121\u6cd5\u53d6\u52dd\u7684\u9632\u79a6\u6230\u4f86\u5a01\u8105\u4e2d\u570b\u5927\u9678<\/u>\u3002\u5be6\u65bd\u7126\u571f\u548c\u6e38\u64ca\u6230\u6230\u8853\u7684\u524d\u666f\u540c\u6a23\u6c92\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002\u300d(\u8a9e\u51fa\u65bc\u3010\u7834\u5de2\u3011\u7ae0\u7bc0\u4e2d)<\/p>\n

\u77ed\u8a55\uff1a\u4f5c\u8005\u5f88\u986f\u7136\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u300c\u5be6\u65bd\u7126\u571f\u548c\u6e38\u64ca\u6230\u6230\u8853\u300d\u662f\u7f8e\u570b<\/u>\u9019\u5169\u5e74\u5f37\u52a0\u5728\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u982d\u4e0a\u7684\u7dca\u7b8d\u5492\u3002\u904e\u53bb\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u7684\u570b\u9632\u601d\u60f3\u662f\u5f9e\u300c\u9632\u885b\u56fa\u5b88\uff0c\u91cd\u5c64\u5687\u963b\u300d\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u767c\u5c55\u51fa\u300c\u6ff1\u6d77\u6c7a\u6230\u3001\u7058\u5cb8\u6bb2\u6575\u300d\u4e4b\u6230\u7565\u69cb\u60f3\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u6d77\u8ecd\u8207\u7a7a\u8ecd\u300c\u6c7a\u6230\u5883\u5916\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u9678\u8ecd\u5247\u300c\u6bb2\u6575\u7058\u982d\u300d\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u8981\u300c\u6c7a\u6230\u5883\u5916\u300d\u5247\u9700\u8981\u6709\u5f37\u5927\u7684\u6d77\u8ecd\u8266\u8247\u90e8\u968a\u8207\u6700\u512a\u826f\u7684\u7a7a\u8ecd\u6230\u6a5f\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u5169\u6a23\u6b66\u5668\u7f8e\u570b<\/u>\u90fd\u5c0d\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u60dc\u552e\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u662f\u5f37\u92b7\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u523a\u91dd\u9632\u7a7a\u98db\u5f48\u7b49\u8fd1\u6230\u6b66\u5668\u3002\u4e00\u526f\u5f37\u8feb\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u6253\u7126\u571f\u6230\u548c\u6e38\u64ca\u6230\u7684\u67b6\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u539f\u6587\uff1a\u300c\u7121\u8ad6\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5a01\u8105\u2014\u2014\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u6700\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5be6\u65bd\u2014\u2014\u5c0d\u81fa\u7063\u4eba\u6c11<\/u>\u7684\u7834\u58de\u6027\u9060\u4e0d\u53ca\u7f8e\u570b<\/u>\u767c\u52d5\u5927\u570b\u6230\u722d\u7684\u5a01\u8105\uff0c\u5f8c\u8005\u5c07\u5728\u6d77\u5167\u5916\u767c\u751f\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u548c\u5728\u81fa\u7063<\/u>\u65c1\u908a\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u6230\u9b25\u3002\u300d(\u8a9e\u51fa\u65bc\u3010\u7834\u5de2\u3011\u7ae0\u7bc0\u4e2d)<\/p>\n

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\u3010\u964d\u4f4e\u7d04\u675f\u6210\u672c\u3011<\/p>\n

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\u7e3d\u8a55\u4e94\uff1a\u300c\u7f8e\u4eba\u975e\u53ef\u4f9d\uff0c\u81fa\u7063\u7576\u81ea\u5f37\u300d<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6700\u5f8c\uff0c\u91cd\u5fb7\u8981\u63d0\u9192\u5927\u5bb6\uff0c\u7121\u8ad6\u7f8e\u570b<\/u>\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u570b\u529b\u770b\u4f3c\u5982\u4f55\u7684\u5f37\u5927\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba<\/u>\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u5982\u4f55\u8b93\u4eba\u7fa8\u6155\uff0c\u90a3\u90fd\u662f\u5e7b\u5f71\u3002\u5b83\u5728\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u5167\u5c31\u6703\u5982\u5922\u5e7b\u6ce1\u5f71\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba<\/u>\u5f9e\u5efa\u570b\u4ee5\u4f86\u5c31\u662f\u5c07\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5e78\u798f\u5efa\u7bc9\u5728\u5225\u4eba\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u9019\u6703\u88ab\u53cd\u566c\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u7f8e\u570b<\/u>\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u53ef\u4ee5\u81ea\u7531\u805a\u6563\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7d44\u7e54\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u7f8e\u570b<\/u>\u768431\u5146\u7f8e\u5143<\/u>\u570b\u50b5\u7121\u6cd5\u511f\u4ed8\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b<\/u>\u5728\u76ee\u524d\u6240\u767c\u884c\u768421,207,400\u767e\u842c\u7f8e\u5143(21\u5146\u7f8e\u5143)\u5c07\u8981\u8cb6\u503c\u5230\u5e7e\u4f55\uff1f\u7f8e\u570b<\/u>\u768450\u5dde\u6703\u4e0d\u8d95\u7dca\u5ba3\u5e03\u812b\u96e2\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u55ce\uff1f\u96e3\u9053\u7f8e\u570b<\/u>\u9084\u8981\u518d\u6253\u4e00\u6b21\u300c\u5357\u5317\u6230\u722d\u300d\u55ce\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u91cd\u5fb7\u5728\u672c\u6587\u4e4b\u672b\u8b39\u6b64\u7c72\u8acb\u6240\u6709\u7684\u81fa\u7063\u4eba<\/u>\u8981\u81ea\u7acb\u81ea\u5f37\uff0c\u8981\u5411\u81fa\u7a4d\u96fb<\/u>\u4ee5\u53ca\u7121\u6578\u7684\u81fa\u7063\u5546\u754c\u82f1\u96c4<\/u>\u5b78\u7fd2\u4ed6\u5011\u596e\u9032\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u8981\u50cf\u7121\u6578\u7684\u81fa\u7063\u6148\u5584\u5bb6<\/u>\u4e00\u6a23\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5149\u548c\u71b1\u8b93\u8a31\u591a\u6697\u9ed1\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u8271\u82e6\u751f\u9748\u5206\u4eab\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u6211\u5011\u81fa\u7063\u4eba<\/u>\u5c07\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u6d3b\u5f97\u66f4\u5be6\u5728\u4e5f\u66f4\u6709\u50f9\u503c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u300c\u7f8e\u4eba\u975e\u53ef\u4f9d\uff0c\u81fa\u7063\u7576\u81ea\u5f37\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u6230\u722d\u5b78\u9662\u6bc0\u53f0\u8a08\u5283\u539f\u6587\uff08Destructive plan of Taiwan)<\/p>\n

https:\/\/press.armywarcollege.edu\/cgi\/viewcontent.cgi?article=3089&context=parameters<\/a><\/p>\n

\u674e\u91cd\u5fb7 \u7ffb\u8b6f 2023\/2\/28 \u7f8e\u570b\u9678\u8ecd\u6230\u722d\u5b78\u9662\u5b63\u520a\uff1a\u53c3\u6578 \u7b2c 51 \u5377\u7b2c 4 \u689d\u7b2c 4 \u689d \u51ac\u5b63 11-17-2021<\/p>\n

\u7834\u5de2\uff1a\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u00a0<\/strong>Jared M. McKinney Peter Harris \u6309\u7167\u9019\u500b\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u4f5c\u54c1\u5728https:\/\/press.armywarcollege.edu\/parameters<\/p>\n

\u90e8\u5206\u4e2d\u570b\u7814\u7a76\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u570b\u9632\u8207\u5b89\u5168\u7814\u7a76\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u5916\u4ea4\u6b77\u53f2\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u502b\u7406\u8207\u653f\u6cbb\u54f2\u5b78\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u570b\u969b\u95dc\u4fc2\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u8ecd\u4e8b\u6b77\u53f2\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u8ecd\u4e8b\u3001\u6230\u722d\u8207\u548c\u5e73\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u6cd5\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u5176\u4ed6\u516c\u5171\u4e8b\u52d9\u3001\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u516c\u5171\u884c\u653f\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u8a2d\u8a08\u3001\u5206\u6790\u548c\u8a55\u4f30\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u6b77\u53f2\u3001\u7406\u8ad6\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u6b77\u53f2\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u7e3d\u7d71\/\u884c\u653f\u90e8\u9580\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u516c\u5171\u4e8b\u52d9\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u6230\u7565\u7ba1\u7406\u653f\u7b56\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u548c\u7f8e\u570b\u6b77\u53f2\u516c\u5730<\/p>\n

\u63a8\u85a6\u5f15\u6587<\/p>\n

Jared M. McKinney & Peter Harris, “Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan,” Parameters 51, no. 4 (2021): 23-36, doi:10.55540\/0031-1723.3089.<\/p>\n

\u672c\u6587\u7531 USAWC Press \u63d0\u4f9b\u7d66\u60a8\u514d\u8cbb\u548c\u958b\u653e\u8a2a\u554f\u3002\u5b83\u5df2\u88ab USAWC \u51fa\u7248\u793e\u7684\u6388\u6b0a\u7de8\u8f2f\u63a5\u53d7\u4e26\u6536\u9304\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u9678\u8ecd\u6230\u722d\u5b78\u9662\u5b63\u520a\uff1a\u53c3\u6578\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u904f\u5236\u4e9e\u6d32\u7684\u4fb5\u7565<\/p>\n

Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7834\u5de2\uff1a\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris<\/p>\n

\u00a92021 Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris<\/p>\n

\u6458\u8981\uff1a\u901a\u904e\u91cf\u8eab\u5b9a\u5236\u7684\u4e00\u652c\u5b50\u5a01\u61fe\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u800c\u4e0d\u9b6f\u83bd\u5730\u5a01\u8105\u5927\u570b\u6230\u722d\uff0c\u65e2\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u50c5\u50c5\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u53f0\u7063\u800c\u6230\u6216\u653e\u68c4\u53f0\u7063\u3002\u672c\u6587\u5c07\u5c0d\u5a01\u61fe\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u7406\u89e3\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u6230\u7565\u601d\u60f3\u548c\u6587\u5316\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\u8b49\u64da\u76f8\u7d50\u5408\uff0c\u4ee5\u69cb\u5efa\u9019\u6a23\u4e00\u7a2e\u6230\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n

Introduction<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4ecb \u7d39<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b (PRC) \u5192\u8457\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u53ca\u5176\u76df\u53cb\u958b\u6230\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u6703\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\uff1f\u904e\u53bb\uff0c\u5f88\u660e\u986f\u5317\u4eac\u6c92\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u5c31\u5176\u8ecd\u968a\u7121\u6cd5\u53d6\u52dd\u7684\u53f0\u7063\u767c\u52d5\u6230\u722d\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u61f7\u7591\u4e2d\u570b\u80fd\u5426\u901a\u904e\u6b66\u529b\u963b\u6b62\u53f0\u7063\u7d71\u4e00\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u8072\u7a31\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u4e0d\u518d\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u4fdd\u885b\u53f0\u5317\u7684\u524d\u666f\u611f\u5230\u6050\u61fc\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5317\u4eac\u9ad8\u5c64\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u76f8\u4fe1\u5b83\u6703\u5728\u53f0\u7063\u6230\u722d\u4e2d\u7372\u52dd\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u5118\u7ba1\u7f8e\u570b\u7121\u7591\u6709\u5f37\u70c8\u7684\u8208\u8da3\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u63a5\u7ba1\u53f0\u7063\uff0c\u4f46\u4f9d\u9760\u5927\u570b\u6230\u722d\u7684\u6f5b\u5728\u5a01\u8105\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u5730\u5340\u8ecd\u4e8b\u5e73\u8861\u5411\u6709\u5229\u65bc\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u8f49\u8b8a\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u6230\u7565\u4e0d\u50c5\u8b8a\u5f97\u4e0d\u90a3\u9ebc\u53ef\u4fe1\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u9084\u8981\u6c42\u7f8e\u570b\u548c\u53f0\u7063\u90fd\u63a5\u53d7\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4f5c\u70ba\u7dad\u6301\u8106\u5f31\u548c\u5e73\u7684\u4ee3\u50f9\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u548c\u53f0\u5317\u7684\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u61c9\u8a72\u5236\u5b9a\u4e00\u9805\u901a\u904e\u61f2\u7f70\u4f86\u5a01\u61fe\u7684\u806f\u5408\u6230\u7565\uff0c\u4ee5\u8aaa\u670d\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u540c\u884c\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u53f0\u7063\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u88ab\u5f81\u670d\uff0c\u4f46\u596a\u53d6\u5b83\u6703\u5f15\u767c\u4e0d\u53ef\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u6230\u7565\u4ee3\u50f9\u5317\u4eac\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u5be6\u65bd\u5f97\u7576\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u6230\u7565\u53ef\u4ee5\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u6e1b\u5c11\u5927\u570b\u4e4b\u9593\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u885d\u7a81\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5982\u679c\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5584\u610f\u52aa\u529b\u76f8\u7d50\u5408\uff0c\u4f7f\u73fe\u72c0\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u53f0\u7063\u5169\u570b\u90fd\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5bb9\u5fcd\u7684\u8a71\u3002<\/p>\n

The Threat of War<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6230\u722d\u7684\u5a01\u8105<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u5728\u9632\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u662f\u76f4\u622a\u4e86\u7576\u4e14\u4ee4\u4eba\u4fe1\u670d\u7684\u3002\u5982\u679c\u53f0\u7063\u843d\u5165\u4e2d\u570b\u624b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5236\u5ea6\u5c07\u88ab\u6d88\u6ec5\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5728\u6771\u4e9e\u7684\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u5730\u4f4d\u5c07\u4ee5\u7f8e\u570b\u53ca\u5176\u76df\u53cb\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u70ba\u4ee3\u50f9\u5f97\u5230\u52a0\u5f37\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c31\u9023\u8b66\u544a\u4e0d\u8981\u8a87\u5927\u53f0\u7063\u6230\u7565\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u7684\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u4e5f\u627f\u8a8d\u9019\u4e00\u4e8b\u5be6\u3002 . .\u5728\u6240\u6709\u689d\u4ef6\u90fd\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u5c07\u53f0\u5317\u653e\u68c4\u7d66\u4e2d\u570b\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u6210\u672c\u548c\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u986f\u7136\u6709\u907f\u514d\u8207\u5317\u4eac\u958b\u6230\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5373\u4f7f\u7f8e\u570b\u8d0f\u4e86\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u885d\u7a81\u4e5f\u5c07\u662f\u6bc0\u6ec5\u6027\u7684\u2014\u2014\u9019\u4e5f\u8a31\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u8aa4\u5c0e\u6027\u7684\u8853\u8a9e\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5373\u4f7f\u6210\u529f\u907f\u514d\u4e2d\u570b\u63a5\u7ba1\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u8ecd\u4e8b\u884c\u52d5\u4ecd\u7136\u6703\u4f7f\u7f8e\u570b\u8655\u65bc\u201c\u6210\u70ba\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u6c38\u4e45\u9632\u79a6\u529b\u91cf\u201d\u7684\u4e0d\u503c\u5f97\u4ee4\u4eba\u7fa8\u6155\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u6bcb\u5eb8\u7f6e\u7591\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u6771\u4e9e\u8ecd\u4e8b\u5e73\u8861\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5b8c\u5168\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8f38\u6389\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u4e2d\u6230\u722d\u201c\u6f14\u8b8a\u6210\u6838\u6230\u722d\u201d\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5176\u7d50\u679c\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u53f0\u7063\u3001\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\u7684\u4eba\u6c11\u4f86\u8aaa\u7c21\u76f4\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u5834\u707d\u96e3\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7121\u8ad6\u7f8e\u570b\u591a\u9ebc\u5e0c\u671b\u7dad\u8b77\u53f0\u7063\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u7684\u7368\u7acb\uff0c\u6230\u722d\u7684\u4ee3\u50f9\u90fd\u610f\u5473\u8457\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u56de\u61c9\u6703\u9762\u81e8\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\u554f\u984c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f9d\u9760\u660e\u793a\u6216\u6697\u793a\u7684\u6230\u722d\u5a01\u8105\u4f86\u5a01\u61fe\u4e2d\u570b\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u9069\u5f97\u5176\u53cd\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u9019\u5c0e\u81f4\u5317\u4eac\u8a55\u4f30\u53f0\u6d77\u5169\u5cb8\u7684\u8ecd\u4e8b\u5e73\u8861\u5141\u8a31\u5165\u4fb5\u7684\u8a71\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u570b\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u6709\u60c5\u5831\u8868\u660e\u7f8e\u570b\u4e0d\u6703\u6230\u9b25\u2014\u2014\u6216\u8005\u6703\u6230\u9b25\u4f46\u6703\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u4e0b\u4ee4\u9032\u653b\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u5e7e\u5341\u5e74\u88e1\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u4eab\u6709\u660e\u986f\u7684\u8ecd\u4e8b\u512a\u52e2\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5a01\u61fe\u80fd\u529b\u66f4\u52a0\u53ef\u4fe1\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c1950 \u5e74 6 \u6708\uff0c\u675c\u9b6f\u9580\u7e3d\u7d71\u5728\u4e2d\u570b\u5927\u9678\u548c\u53f0\u7063\u4e4b\u9593\u6d3e\u9063\u7b2c\u4e03\u8266\u968a\u201c\u4ee5\u2018\u4e2d\u548c\u2019\u53f0\u7063\u6d77\u5cfd\u201d\uff0c\u4e26\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u8ecd\u968a\u9032\u884c\u5169\u68f2\u653b\u64ca\u3002<\/p>\n

40 \u591a\u5e74\u5f8c\uff0c\u6bd4\u723e\u00b7\u514b\u6797\u9813\u7e3d\u7d71\u5411\u8a72\u5730\u5340\u6d3e\u9063\u4e86\u5169\u500b\u822a\u6bcd\u6230\u9b25\u7fa4\uff0c\u9019\u7d66\u4e2d\u570b\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u7559\u4e0b\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b\u8ecd\u4e8b\u512a\u52e2\u7684\u5370\u8c61\u2014\u2014\u9019\u7a2e\u6b66\u529b\u5c55\u793a\u96d6\u7136\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u4f46\u5177\u6709\u9577\u671f\u7684\u8aaa\u670d\u6548\u679c\u8b93\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u5c0b\u6c42\u5c0d\u53cd\u8266\u5f48\u9053\u5c0e\u5f48\u9032\u884c\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u6295\u8cc7\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u5373\u4f7f\u7f8e\u570b\u5728\u4e2d\u570b\u80fd\u5920\u78ba\u4fdd\u65e2\u6210\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e4b\u524d\u9032\u884c\u5e72\u9810\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u6230\u7565\u5bb6\u4e5f\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u76f8\u4fe1\u7f8e\u570b\u6703\u8f38\u6389\u4e00\u5834\u95dc\u65bc\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u6230\u722d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u51fa\u73fe\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u5b83\u5c07\u70ba\u4e2d\u570b\u5e36\u4f86\u570b\u5167\u548c\u570b\u969b\u8072\u671b\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u52dd\u5229\u2014\u2014\u9019\u5c0d\u4efb\u4f55\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u4f86\u8aaa\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u8a98\u4eba\u7684\u524d\u666f\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u6253\u7b97\u5fb9\u5e95\u91cd\u5efa\u4e2d\u570b\u5927\u570b\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u9019\u4e00\u6230\u7565\u6b63\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u5728 1962 \u5e74\u7684\u4e2d\u5370\u6230\u722d\u30011969 \u5e74\u7684\u4e2d\u8607\u908a\u754c\u885d\u7a81\u548c 1979 \u5e74\u7684\u4e2d\u8d8a\u6230\u722d\u4e2d\u8a66\u5716\u57f7\u884c\u7684\u6230\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u8d0f\u5f97\u9019\u6a23\u4e00\u5834\u6230\u722d\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703\u7d66\u7f8e\u570b\u548c\u53f0\u7063\u63d0\u4f9b\u6c38\u4e45\u53ef\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u5169\u5cb8\u95dc\u4fc2\u554f\u984c\u89e3\u6c7a\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u6211\u5011\u540c\u610f\u65af\u79d1\u8c9d\u723e<\/u>\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u201c\u53f0\u7063\u554f\u984c\u8981\u4e00\u52de\u6c38\u9038\u5730\u89e3\u6c7a\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u5fc5\u9808\u8b93\u5317\u4eac\u6eff\u610f\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

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Beijing,<\/sup>s Changing Calculus<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5317\u4eac\u4e0d\u65b7\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u8a08\u7b97<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u63a8\u52d5\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u4e0d\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u53ef\u4ee5\u8f15\u6613\u963b\u6b62\u7684\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u8ecd\u4e8b\u6210\u679c\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u524a\u5f31\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u80fd\u9006\u8f49\u3002\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u4e5f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6539\u8b8a\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u570b\u5167\u653f\u6cbb\u6216\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\u53cd\u5c0d\u7121\u9650\u671f\u53f0\u7063\u7368\u7acb\u7684\u71b1\u60c5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u4e00\u4e9b\u624b\u6bb5\u4f86\u964d\u4f4e\u4e2d\u570b\u5c0d\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u8208\u8da3\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u904e\u5a01\u8105\u5317\u4eac\u7684\u5a01\u61fe\u61f2\u7f70\u6230\u7565\u4f86\u589e\u52a0\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u884c\u52d5\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u901a\u904e\u6230\u722d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u901a\u904e\u632b\u6557\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u512a\u5148\u4e8b\u9805\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u901a\u904e\u5584\u610f\u52aa\u529b\u8e10\u884c\u7f8e\u4e2d\u5728\u53f0\u7063\u554f\u984c\u4e0a\u548c\u89e3\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u4e2d\u570b\u7d04\u5236\u7684\u6210\u672c\u3002\u9019\u5169\u500b\u76ee\u6a19\u53ef\u4ee5\u540c\u6642\u5be6\u73fe\uff0c\u4ee5\u52a0\u5f37\u5a01\u61fe\u529b\uff0c\u4fc3\u9032\u5169\u5cb8\u95dc\u4fc2\u7684\u9577\u671f\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u4fc3\u9032\u7f8e\u570b\u548c\u53f0\u7063\u4e43\u81f3\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4f9d\u6b21\u4f7f\u7528\u6bcf\u500b\u69d3\u687f\u3002<\/p>\n

The Broken Nest<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7834 \u5de2<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u570b\u8afa\u8a9e\u8aaa\uff1a\u201c\u7834\u5de2\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f55\u4f86\u5168\u86cb\uff1f\u9019\u53e5\u8afa\u8a9e\u7684\u610f\u601d\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e0d\u80fd\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u7528\u6b66\u529b\u596a\u53d6\u53f0\u7063\uff0c\u5b83\u61c9\u8a72\u5236\u5b9a\u4e00\u9805\u6230\u7565\u4f86\u8aaa\u670d\u4e2d\u570b\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\uff0c\u5165\u4fb5\u6703\u7522\u751f\u6bd4\u73fe\u72c0\u66f4\u6709\u5bb3\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5982\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5df2\u7d93\u5c07\u61f2\u7f70\u5a01\u61fe\u908f\u8f2f\u7d0d\u5165\u5176\u5c0d\u53f0\u7e3d\u9ad4\u6230\u7565\u3002\u7834\u5de2\u65b9\u5f0f\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u61f2\u7f70\u5a01\u61fe\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u5340\u5225\u5728\u65bc\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8cf4\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u4f7f\u7528\u6b66\u529b\u7684\u610f\u9858\uff1b\u8a72\u6230\u7565\u662f\u7368\u4e00\u7121\u4e8c\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5b83\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u8b93\u5404\u65b9\u653e\u5fc3\uff0c\u4e00\u5834\u5927\u570b\u6230\u722d\u4e0d\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5a01\u8105\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u9032\u884c\u8ecd\u4e8b\u5831\u5fa9\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c0d\u5317\u4eac\u5be6\u65bd\u591a\u9805\u8655\u7f70\u3002\u6700\u660e\u986f\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\u662f\u8b93\u53f0\u7063\u66f4\u80fd\u62b5\u79a6\u5165\u4fb5\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u901a\u904e\u5f9e\u7f8e\u570b\u8cfc\u8cb7\u5408\u9069\u7684\u9632\u79a6\u6027\u6b66\u5668\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u8eca\u8f09\u9b5a\u53c9\u3001\u6a5f\u52d5\u706b\u7bad\u7cfb\u7d71\u548c\u6d77\u6d6a\u5340\u6c34\u96f7\uff09\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u5728\u9019\u65b9\u9762\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u9032\u5c55\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53f0\u7063\u8d8a\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u53ef\u4fe1\u5730\u5a01\u8105\u767c\u52d5\u4e00\u5834\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u81ea\u885b\u6230\u722d\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5c31\u8d8a\u4e0d\u6703\u5a01\u8105\u8981\u767c\u52d5\u81ea\u5df1\u9078\u64c7\u7684\u6230\u722d\u3002\u53f0\u5317\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u9084\u5fc5\u9808\u8b93\u5317\u4eac\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u93ae\u58d3\u53f0\u7063 2350 \u842c\u516c\u6c11\u5c07\u9762\u81e8\u4e00\u5834\u6f2b\u9577\u800c\u4ee3\u50f9\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u9b25\u722d\u3002\u81f3\u5c11\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u5fc5\u9808\u9810\u898b\u5230\u5ee3\u6cdb\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u6297\u547d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u66f4\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u671f\u5f85\u5728\u53f0\u7063\u9032\u884c\u6e38\u64ca\u6230\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u5c07\u66b4\u529b\u8f38\u51fa\u5230\u5927\u9678\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u4eba\u5728\u591a\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u652f\u6301\u6253\u4e00\u5834\u201c\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u6230\u722d\u201d\u4f86\u4fdd\u885b\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u5cf6\u5dbc\u3002\u70ba\u4f7f\u5a01\u61fe\u767c\u63ee\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u53f0\u5317\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u5fc5\u9808\u978f\u56fa\u570b\u5167\u5c0d\u62b5\u6297\u4e2d\u570b\u4fb5\u7565\u7684\u652f\u6301\u4e26\u5efa\u7acb\u62b5\u6297\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5c31\u5176\u672c\u8eab\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9762\u5c0d\u5f37\u5927\u4f46\u6700\u7d42\u6703\u5931\u6557\u7684\u9632\u79a6\u4e4b\u9810\u671f\u662f\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u5165\u4fb5\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u9084\u5fc5\u9808\u8b93\u5317\u4eac\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u5f81\u670d\u53f0\u7063\u5728\u6eff\u8db3\u4e2d\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u6838\u5fc3\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4e0d\u5371\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u6838\u5fc3\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u5b8c\u6210\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\uff0c\u9019\u4e00\u6230\u7565\u610f\u5473\u8457\u5411\u4e2d\u570b\u4fdd\u8b49\uff0c\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u6703\u5728\u5927\u9678\u9020\u6210\u91cd\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u67d0\u4e9b\u4eba\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e2d\u570b\u5438\u6536\u53f0\u7063\u5f37\u5927\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u7522\u696d\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u6280\u8853\u512a\u52e2\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u548c\u53f0\u7063\u61c9\u8a72\u5236\u5b9a\u6709\u91dd\u5c0d\u6027\u7684\u7126\u571f\u6230\u7565\u8a08\u5283\uff0c\u9019\u5c07\u4f7f\u53f0\u7063\u5728\u88ab\u6b66\u529b\u596a\u53d6\u6642\u4e0d\u50c5\u6c92\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u7dad\u8b77\u8d77\u4f86\u6210\u672c\u4e5f\u5f88\u9ad8\u3002\u8981\u505a\u5230\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u6700\u6709\u6548\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u5a01\u8105\u6467\u6bc0\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u7684\u8a2d\u65bd\uff0c\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u82af\u7247\u88fd\u9020\u5546\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u5546\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f4d\u65bc\u97d3\u570b\uff08\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u76df\u53cb\uff09\u7684\u4e09\u661f\u662f\u5c16\u7aef\u8a2d\u8a08\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u9078\u64c7\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u4e2d\u570b\u70ba\u201c\u4e2d\u570b\u88fd\u9020\u201d\u82af\u7247\u884c\u696d\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u5230 2020 \u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u534a\u5c0e\u9ad4\u4e2d\u53ea\u6709 6% \u662f\u5728\u570b\u5167\u751f\u7522\u7684\u3002\u5982\u679c\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u7684\u8a2d\u65bd\u51fa\u73fe\u6545\u969c\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u4f01\u696d\u5c07\u96e3\u4ee5\u7e7c\u7e8c\u904b\u71df\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9019\u4e00\u767c\u5c55\u610f\u5473\u8457\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u9ad8\u79d1\u6280\u7522\u696d\u5c07\u5728\u570b\u5bb6\u6372\u5165\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u6230\u722d\u7684\u540c\u6642\u505c\u6eef\u4e0d\u524d\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u6b63\u5f0f\u6230\u722d\u7d50\u675f\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u672c\u4e5f\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u6578\u5e74\u3002\u5f9e\u4e2d\u570b\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u5c07\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u5371\u96aa\u7684\u96de\u5c3e\u9152\uff0c\u5176\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u570b\u5167\u5b89\u5be7\u3001\u570b\u5bb6\u5fa9\u539f\u529b\u548c\u6301\u7e8c\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u7684\u627f\u8afe\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u6311\u6230\u5728\u65bc\u8b93\u4e2d\u570b\u6c7a\u7b56\u8005\u76f8\u4fe1\u9019\u7a2e\u5a01\u8105\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u5fc5\u9808\u7d55\u5c0d\u76f8\u4fe1\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u534a\u5c0e\u9ad4\u7522\u696d\u6703\u5728\u5165\u4fb5\u6642\u88ab\u6467\u6bc0\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u570b\u61f7\u7591\u53f0\u5317\u4e0d\u6703\u514c\u73fe\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u5a01\u8105\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5a01\u61fe\u5c31\u6703\u5931\u6557\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53ef\u4ee5\u8a2d\u8a08\u4e00\u500b\u81ea\u52d5\u6a5f\u5236\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u78ba\u8a8d\u5165\u4fb5\u5c31\u6703\u89f8\u767c\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u73fe\u5728\u53ef\u4ee5\u8868\u660e\u4ed6\u5011\u4e0d\u6703\u8b93\u9019\u4e9b\u7522\u696d\u843d\u5165\u5c0d\u624b\u4e4b\u624b\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u53ca\u5176\u76df\u570b\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u904e\u5ba3\u5e03\u8a08\u5283\u70ba\u5728\u8a72\u884c\u696d\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u9ad8\u6280\u80fd\u53f0\u7063\u4eba\u63d0\u4f9b\u5e87\u8b77\u3001\u8207\u53f0\u5317\u5236\u5b9a\u61c9\u6025\u8a08\u5283\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u758f\u6563\u548c\u8655\u7406\u7d93\u71df\u5be6\u9ad4\u534a\u5c0e\u9ad4\u4ee3\u5de5\u5ee0\u7684\u4eba\u529b\u8cc7\u672c\u4f86\u652f\u6301\u9019\u4e00\u52aa\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9019\u7a2e\u201c\u7834\u5de2\u201d\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u4e26\u975e\u6c92\u6709\u5148\u4f8b\u3002\u745e\u5178\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6230\u671f\u9593\u5c31\u5176\u9435\u7926\u2014\u2014\u5de5\u696d\u6230\u722d\u6750\u6599\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u4f86\u6e90\u2014\u2014\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u6027\u7126\u571f\u5a01\u8105\uff0c\u4f5c\u70ba\u5176\u53cd\u7d0d\u7cb9\u5a01\u61fe\u7e3d\u9ad4\u6230\u7565\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u53f0\u5317\u5236\u5b9a\u4e26\u516c\u958b\u8a08\u5283\u4f7f\u7528\u5de1\u822a\u5c0e\u5f48\u548c\u5f48\u9053\u5c0e\u5f48\u7784\u6e96\u5927\u9678\u7684\u82af\u7247\u751f\u7522\u7dda\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e2d\u82af\u570b\u969b\u5728\u4e0a\u6d77\u7684\u5de5\u5ee0\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u5a01\u8105\u5c07\u6bd4\u745e\u5178\u7684\u5a01\u8105\u66f4\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7531\u7f8e\u570b\u727d\u982d\u4f46\u5f97\u5230\u97d3\u570b\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u76df\u570b\u652f\u6301\u7684\u91dd\u5c0d\u4efb\u4f55\u5411\u4e2d\u570b\u51fa\u53e3\u82af\u7247\u7684\u9810\u5148\u8a08\u5283\u7684\u5236\u88c1\u884c\u52d5\u5c07\u52a0\u5f37\u9019\u7a2e\u505a\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6beb\u7121\u7591\u554f\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u4eba\u6703\u975e\u5e38\u64d4\u5fc3\u7528\u4e00\u5834\u53ef\u80fd\u7121\u6cd5\u53d6\u52dd\u7684\u9632\u79a6\u6230\u4f86\u5a01\u8105\u4e2d\u570b\u5927\u9678\u3002\u5be6\u65bd\u7126\u571f\u548c\u6e38\u64ca\u6230\u6230\u8853\u7684\u524d\u666f\u540c\u6a23\u6c92\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8b93\u4e2d\u570b\u76f8\u4fe1\u9019\u4e9b\u5a01\u8105\u5c07\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u5927\u6311\u6230\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u6216\u8a31\u6c92\u6709\u8aaa\u670d\u5317\u4eac\u76f8\u4fe1\u53f0\u7063\u548c\u7f8e\u570b\u9858\u610f\u5192\u56e0\u53f0\u7063\u653f\u6cbb\u5730\u4f4d\u800c\u5f15\u767c\u5927\u570b\u6230\u722d\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u90a3\u9ebc\u56f0\u96e3\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u77db\u76fe\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u8b93\u9019\u4e9b\u5a01\u8105\u8b8a\u5f97\u53ef\u4fe1\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u624d\u6c38\u9060\u4e0d\u5fc5\u5be6\u65bd\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u5c31\u5176\u672c\u8eab\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u9810\u671f\u7684\u61f2\u7f70\u90fd\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5c07\u5b83\u5011\u653e\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u8b49\u660e\u662f\u6709\u6548\u7684\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6821\u6e96\u5f97\u7576\uff0c\u5f9e\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u901a\u904e\u61f2\u7f70\u4f86\u5a01\u61fe\u7684\u6230\u7565\u5c07\u4f7f\u653b\u64ca\u8b8a\u5f97\u4e0d\u5408\u7406\u3002\u9019\u500b\u7d50\u679c\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u7f8e\u53f0\u806f\u5408\u6230\u7565\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\n

Reducing the Costs of Restraint<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u964d\u4f4e\u7d04\u675f\u6210\u672c<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5c0d\u6211\u5011\u8ad6\u9ede\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u53cd\u5c0d\u610f\u898b\u662f\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u8207\u53f0\u7063\u7d71\u4e00\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u9577\u671f\u76ee\u6a19\u2014\u2014\u4e00\u500b\u7531\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u7fa9\u3001\u6536\u5fa9\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u4e2d\u570b\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u4e0d\u65b7\u5c0b\u6c42\u570b\u5167\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u63a8\u52d5\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u2014\u2014\u4e2d\u570b\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u4e0d\u6703\u505c\u4e0b\u4f86\u8a08\u7b97\u6210\u672c\u6b0a\u8861\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6642\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u4e2d\u570b\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u6709\u5169\u500b\u6709\u671f\u9650\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u76ee\u6a19\uff1a\u5230 2035 \u5e74\u201c\u57fa\u672c\u5be6\u73fe\u201d\u201c\u793e\u6703\u4e3b\u7fa9\u73fe\u4ee3\u5316\u201d\u548c\u5230 2049 \u5e74\u6210\u70ba\u201c\u793e\u6703\u4e3b\u7fa9\u73fe\u4ee3\u5316\u5f37\u570b\u201d\u3002\u9451\u65bc\u4e2d\u570b\u570b\u5167\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u3001\u751f\u614b\u3001\u793e\u6703\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6311\u6230\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u5c07\u96e3\u4ee5\u5be6\u73fe\u9019\u4e9b\u76ee\u6a19\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4fb5\u53f0\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u4e0a\u8ff0\u61f2\u7f70\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u5c07\u6210\u70ba\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201c\u4e2d\u570b\u5922\u201d\u7684\u5176\u9918\u90e8\u5206\u5c07\u540c\u6a23\u9677\u5165\u6df7\u4e82\u3002\u6230\u7565\u5c31\u662f\u5e73\u8861\u95dc\u9375\u5229\u76ca\u2014\u2014\u4e2d\u570b\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u5c0d\u6b64\u6df1\u6709\u9ad4\u6703\u3002\u5728 1975 \u5e74\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u6703\u8b70\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ea8\u5229\u00b7\u5b63\u8f9b\u5409 (Henry Kissinger) \u548c\u6bdb\u6fa4\u6771\u8a0e\u8ad6\u4e86\u53f0\u7063\u4f55\u6642\u56de\u6b78\u5927\u9678\u3002\u6bdb\u8aaa\uff1a\u201c\u4e00\u767e\u5e74\u5f8c\u3002\u201d\u57fa\u8f9b\u683c\u56de\u7b54\u8aaa\uff1a\u201c\u7528\u4e0d\u4e86\u4e00\u767e\u5e74\u3002\u5c11\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u201d\u6bdb\u63a5\u8457\u8aaa\uff1a\u201c\u9084\u662f\u5728\u4f60\u5011\u624b\u88e1\u6bd4\u8f03\u597d\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u73fe\u5728\u628a\u5b83\u5bc4\u56de\u7d66\u6211\uff0c\u6211\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703\u60f3\u8981\u5b83\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5b83\u4e0d\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8981\u7684\u3002\u90a3\u88e1\u6709\u4e00\u5927\u7fa4\u53cd\u9769\u547d\u5206\u5b50\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

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\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u5fc5\u9808\u8b93\u5317\u4eac\u653e\u5fc3\uff0c\u9078\u64c7\u653e\u68c4\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u4e26\u4e0d\u7b49\u540c\u65bc\u5931\u53bb\u53f0\u7063\u3002\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u7684\u6210\u672c\u80af\u5b9a\u53ea\u662f\u89e3\u6c7a\u7576\u524d\u6230\u7565\u56f0\u5883\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff1b\u53f0\u7063\u548c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e5f\u5fc5\u9808\u63a1\u53d6\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u6e1b\u8f15\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u514b\u5236\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u5fc5\u9808\u660e\u78ba\u91cd\u7533\u53f0\u7063\u5730\u4f4d\u672a\u5b9a\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7121\u610f\u652f\u6301\u53f0\u7063\u7368\u7acb\u5efa\u570b\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703\u4f7f\u7528\u9055\u53cd\u4e2d\u7f8e\u7cbe\u795e\u7684\u7070\u8272\u5730\u5e36\u7b56\u7565\u5c0b\u6c42\u6539\u8b8a\u73fe\u72c0\u548c\u7766\u3002\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u5fc5\u9808\u5805\u6c7a\u53cd\u5c0d\u6b66\u529b\u89e3\u6c7a\u53f0\u7063\u554f\u984c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8207\u4ee5\u8ecd\u4e8b\u5831\u5fa9\u5a01\u8105\u70ba\u6838\u5fc3\u7684\u6230\u7565\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u61f2\u7f70\u5a01\u61fe\u6230\u7565\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8cf4\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u52a0\u5f37\u5176\u5728\u6771\u5317\u4e9e\u7684\u8ecd\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u505a\u6cd5\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u7559\u4e0b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u7a7a\u9593\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a1\u53d6\u4e00\u7a2e\u80fd\u5920\u8b93\u65e5\u672c\u548c\u97d3\u570b\u7b49\u76df\u570b\u5c0d\u5176\u96c6\u9ad4\u9632\u79a6\u611f\u5230\u653e\u5fc3\u7684\u6b66\u529b\u614b\u52e2\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u8b93\u53f0\u7063\u548c\u4e2d\u570b\u76f8\u4fe1\u7f8e\u570b\u771f\u6b63\u81f4\u529b\u65bc\u7dad\u6301\u53f0\u6d77\u73fe\u72c0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5b83\u9084\u4f7f\u7f8e\u570b\u8ecd\u968a\u80fd\u5920\u64fa\u812b\u5728\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u57fa\u5730\uff0c\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u589e\u52a0\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6e1b\u5c11\u5927\u570b\u6230\u722d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u2014\u2014\u901a\u904e\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u4e3b\u52d5\u9632\u79a6\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u7684\u5148\u767c\u5236\u4eba\u7684\u653b\u64ca\u3002\u5c07\u5a01\u61fe\u7684\u8ca0\u64d4\u5f9e\u8ecd\u4e8b\u5831\u5fa9\u8f49\u79fb\u5230\u975e\u8ecd\u4e8b\u61f2\u7f70\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u964d\u4f4e\u56e0\u8aa4\u5224\u800c\u5f15\u767c\u6230\u722d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u6d88\u9664\u4e86\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u96c6\u7d50\u662f\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u548c\u53f0\u7063\u6311\u91c1\u7684\u56de\u61c9\u7684\u85c9\u53e3\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u7f8e\u570b\u5728\u53f0\u7063\u5468\u570d\u7684\u8ecd\u4e8b\u8db3\u8de1\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u5371\u96aa\u3002\u5fc5\u9808\u8207\u5340\u57df\u5408\u4f5c\u5925\u4f34\u4e00\u8d77\u9032\u884c\u4ed4\u7d30\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u898f\u5283\uff0c\u4ee5\u78ba\u5b9a\u9700\u8981\u4f55\u7a2e\u6c34\u5e73\u548c\u985e\u578b\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u524d\u6cbf\u90e8\u7f72\u4f86\u5b89\u64ab\u76df\u53cb\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u6e1b\u5c11\u6230\u722d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u5728\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u61f2\u7f70\u6027\u5a01\u61fe\u6230\u7565\u5230\u4f4d\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4e0d\u61c9\u7e2e\u7de8\u8ecd\u968a\uff1b\u5426\u5247\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5bdf\u89ba\u5230\u767c\u52d5\u6210\u529f\u653b\u64ca\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u4e4b\u7a97\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u53f0\u7063\u4e0d\u518d\u76f8\u4fe1\u7f8e\u570b\u6703\uff08\u6216\u53ef\u80fd\uff09\u4ee3\u8868\u5b83\u9032\u884c\u5e72\u9810\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u6703\u90a3\u9ebc\u9f13\u52f5\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u767c\u52d5\u7368\u7acb\u6230\u722d\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c\u9451\u65bc\u6709\u95dc\u53f0\u7063\u6b66\u88dd\u90e8\u968a\u58eb\u6c23\u4f4e\u843d\u4ee5\u53ca\u570b\u9632\u958b\u652f\u4f4e\uff08\u7d04\u4f54 GDP \u7684 2%\uff09\u7684\u5831\u5c0e\uff0c\u5c0d\u73fe\u72c0\u7684\u885d\u64ca\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u662f\u5f62\u52e2\u6240\u9700\u8981\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7121\u8ad6\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u5c0d\u6b66\u529b\u5a01\u8105\u7684\u4f9d\u8cf4\u4e26\u4e0d\u7b49\u540c\u65bc\u5b8c\u5168\u6392\u9664\u4f7f\u7528\u6b66\u529b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u662f\u5426\u6703\u4f7f\u7528\u6b66\u529b\uff0c\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\u59cb\u7d42\u5b58\u5728\u6b67\u7fa9\u3002<\/p>\n

Conclusion: Deterrence and Reassurance<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7d50\u8ad6\uff1a\u5a01\u61fe\u548c\u4fdd\u8b49<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5fc5\u9808\u662f\u963b\u6b62\u4f7f\u7528\u6b66\u529b\u4f86\u985b\u8986\u53f0\u6d77\u5169\u5cb8\u7684\u73fe\u72c0\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u9084\u5fc5\u9808\u8003\u616e\u73fe\u5be6\u60c5\u6cc1\uff1a\u8ecd\u4e8b\u5a01\u61fe\u6b63\u8b8a\u5f97\u4e0d\u50cf\u904e\u53bb\u90a3\u6a23\u53ef\u4fe1\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4f9d\u9760\u8ecd\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\u4f86\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u4fb5\u7565\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u7f8e\u570b\u548c\u53f0\u7063\u653f\u5e9c\u8b93\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u627f\u64d4\u9ad8\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u7a2e\u65b0\u7684\u5a01\u61fe\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e00\u7a2e\u4e0d\u50cf\u76ee\u524d\u90a3\u6a23\u4f9d\u8cf4\u65bc\u5371\u96aa\u7684\u8ecd\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\u5a01\u8105\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u63d0\u9ad8\u6253\u7834\u53f0\u7063\u5de2\u7a74\u7684\u6210\u672c\u540c\u6642\u5fe0\u5be6\u5730\u4fdd\u6301\u672a\u88ab\u6253\u7834\u7684\u5de2\u7a74\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u96d9\u91cd\u7b56\u7565\u662f\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u5f9e\u800c\u907f\u514d\u5927\u570b\u6230\u722d\u7684\u6700\u8b39\u614e\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5fc5\u9808\u8b93\u4e2d\u570b\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u8ecd\u4e8b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u4e0d\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u4efb\u4f55\u7e3d\u9ad4\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u800c\u7dad\u6301\u73fe\u72c0\u537b\u6709\u76f8\u7576\u5927\u7684\u597d\u8655\u3002\u6b78\u6839\u7d50\u5e95\uff0c\u7d14\u7cb9\u2014\u2014\u751a\u81f3\u4e3b\u8981\u2014\u2014\u57fa\u65bc\u8ecd\u4e8b\u5a01\u61fe\u7684\u6230\u7565\u7121\u6cd5\u5be6\u73fe\u9019\u4e9b\u76ee\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9664\u975e\u7f8e\u570b\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u771f\u7684\u9858\u610f\u70ba\u4fdd\u885b\u53f0\u7063\u800c\u53c3\u52a0\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6230\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u4ed6\u5011\u6700\u597d\u8003\u616e\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8cf4\u8ecd\u4e8b\u5831\u5fa9\u5a01\u8105\u7684\u5a01\u61fe\u6230\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u60f3\u50cf\u9019\u6a23\u4e00\u7a2e\u66ff\u4ee3\u6027\u5a01\u61fe\u6230\u7565\u2014\u2014\u4f9d\u9760\u975e\u8ecd\u4e8b\u624b\u6bb5\u7684\u56b4\u53b2\u61f2\u7f70\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u671f\u671b\u80fd\u5920\u5728\u8ecd\u4e8b\u4e0a\u64ca\u9000\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u5165\u4fb5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u8a8d\u8b58\u5230\u901a\u904e\u61f2\u7f70\u4f86\u5236\u5b9a\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u5a01\u61fe\u6230\u7565\u7684\u56f0\u96e3\u3002\u5c24\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7834\u5de2\u6230\u7565\u610f\u5473\u8457\u63a5\u53d7\u4e2d\u570b\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5f81\u670d\u53f0\u7063\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u9078\u64c7\u9019\u6a23\u505a\u7684\u8a71\u3002\u9019\u4e5f\u610f\u5473\u8457\u5236\u5b9a\u8a08\u5283\uff0c\u4ee5\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u4ee3\u50f9\u6467\u6bc0\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u57fa\u790e\u8a2d\u65bd\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5118\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u5373\u4f7f\u7f8e\u570b\u4ecb\u5165\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5f81\u670d\u53f0\u7063\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5927\u570b\u885d\u7a81\u7684\u793e\u6703\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u672c\u5c07\u4f7f\u5f97\u53f0\u7063\u534a\u5c0e\u9ad4\u7522\u696d\u6709\u91dd\u5c0d\u6027\u7684\u88ab\u7834\u58de\u6216\u53db\u4e82\u6240\u9020\u6210\u7684\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u5371\u5bb3\u76f8\u5f62\u898b\u7d40\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7e3d\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u7834\u5de2\u6230\u7565\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u4e0d\u63a1\u53d6\u4efb\u4f55\u88ab\u4e2d\u570b\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u89e3\u8b80\u70ba\u6230\u722d\u884c\u70ba\u7684\u884c\u52d5\u3002\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5317\u4eac\u771f\u7684\u8a8d\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7a4d\u6975\u7684\u4ea4\u6230\u570b\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5c0d\u7f8e\u8ecd\u767c\u52d5\u5148\u767c\u88fd\u4eba\u7684\u6253\u64ca\u3002\u5fc5\u9808\u8a8d\u771f\u8003\u616e\u9019\u7a2e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6c92\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u96f6\u885d\u7a81\u98a8\u96aa\u5730\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5927\u9678\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u3002\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u5341\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u4fb5\u7565\u4e26\u964d\u4f4e\u5927\u570b\u885d\u7a81\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u9075\u5faa\u4e0a\u8ff0\u8def\u5f91\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u767c\u751f\u6230\u722d\uff0c\u5247\u7834\u5de2\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u548c\u5e73\uff0c\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bb9\u5fcd\u7684\u73fe\u72c0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u300a\u7834\u5de2\uff1a\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u81fa\u7063\u300b\u7684\u5169\u540d\u4f5c\u8005<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/td>\n\"\"<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jared M. McKinney \u535a\u58eb\u662f\u7a7a\u8ecd\u5927\u5b78\u7814\u7a76\u751f\u5c08\u696d\u8ecd\u4e8b\u6559\u80b2\u5b78\u9662\u6230\u7565\u8207\u5b89\u5168\u7814\u7a76\u7cfb\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u300a\u5370\u592a\u4e8b\u52d9\u96dc\u8a8c\u300b\u7684\u8a55\u8ad6\u7de8\u8f2f\u3002<\/td>\nPeter Harris \u535a\u58eb\u662f\u79d1\u7f85\u62c9\u591a\u5dde\u7acb\u5927\u5b78\u653f\u6cbb\u5b78\u526f\u6559\u6388\u548c\u300a\u5370\u592a\u4e8b\u52d9\u96dc\u8a8c\u300b\u7684 Indo-Pacific Perspectives \u7de8\u8f2f\u3002<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

(\u5168\u6587\u5b8c)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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2023\/2\/28 \u7f8e\u570b\u9678\u8ecd\u6230\u722d\u5b78\u9662\u5b63\u520a\uff1a\u53c3\u6578 \u7b2c 51 \u5377\u7b2c 4 \u689d\u7b2c 4 \u689d \u51ac\u5b63 11-17-2021 \u7834\u5de2\uff1a\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u00a0Jared M. McKinney Peter Harris \u6309\u7167\u9019\u500b\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u4f5c\u54c1\u5728https:\/\/press.armywarcollege.edu\/parameters \u90e8\u5206\u4e2d\u570b\u7814\u7a76\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u570b\u9632\u8207\u5b89\u5168\u7814\u7a76\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u5916\u4ea4\u6b77\u53f2\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u502b\u7406\u8207\u653f\u6cbb\u54f2\u5b78\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u570b\u969b\u95dc\u4fc2\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u8ecd\u4e8b\u6b77\u53f2\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u8ecd\u4e8b\u3001\u6230\u722d\u8207\u548c\u5e73\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u6cd5\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u5176\u4ed6\u516c\u5171\u4e8b\u52d9\u3001\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u516c\u5171\u884c\u653f\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u8a2d\u8a08\u3001\u5206\u6790\u548c\u8a55\u4f30\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u6b77\u53f2\u3001\u7406\u8ad6\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u6b77\u53f2\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u7e3d\u7d71\/\u884c\u653f\u90e8\u9580\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u516c\u5171\u4e8b\u52d9\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u6230\u7565\u7ba1\u7406\u653f\u7b56\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u548c\u7f8e\u570b\u6b77\u53f2\u516c\u5730 \u63a8\u85a6\u5f15\u6587 Jared M. McKinney & Peter Harris, "Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan," Parameters 51, no. 4 (2021): 23-36, doi:10.55540\/0031-1723.3089. \u672c\u6587\u7531 USAWC Press \u63d0\u4f9b\u7d66\u60a8\u514d\u8cbb\u548c\u958b\u653e\u8a2a\u554f\u3002\u5b83\u5df2\u88ab USAWC \u51fa\u7248\u793e\u7684\u6388\u6b0a\u7de8\u8f2f\u63a5\u53d7\u4e26\u6536\u9304\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u9678\u8ecd\u6230\u722d\u5b78\u9662\u5b63\u520a\uff1a\u53c3\u6578\u4e2d\u3002 \u904f\u5236\u4e9e\u6d32\u7684\u4fb5\u7565 Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan \u7834\u5de2\uff1a\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063 Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris \u00a92021 Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris \u6458\u8981\uff1a\u901a\u904e\u91cf\u8eab\u5b9a\u5236\u7684\u4e00\u652c\u5b50\u5a01\u61fe\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u800c\u4e0d\u9b6f\u83bd\u5730\u5a01\u8105\u5927\u570b\u6230\u722d\uff0c\u65e2\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u50c5\u50c5\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u53f0\u7063\u800c\u6230\u6216\u653e\u68c4\u53f0\u7063\u3002\u672c\u6587\u5c07\u5c0d\u5a01\u61fe\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u7406\u89e3\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u6230\u7565\u601d\u60f3\u548c\u6587\u5316\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\u8b49\u64da\u76f8\u7d50\u5408\uff0c\u4ee5\u69cb\u5efa\u9019\u6a23\u4e00\u7a2e\u6230\u7565\u3002 Introduction \u4ecb \u7d39 \u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b (PRC) 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\u5982\u679c\u5be6\u65bd\u5f97\u7576\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u6230\u7565\u53ef\u4ee5\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u6e1b\u5c11\u5927\u570b\u4e4b\u9593\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u885d\u7a81\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5982\u679c\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5584\u610f\u52aa\u529b\u76f8\u7d50\u5408\uff0c\u4f7f\u73fe\u72c0\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u53f0\u7063\u5169\u570b\u90fd\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5bb9\u5fcd\u7684\u8a71\u3002 The Threat of War \u6230\u722d\u7684\u5a01\u8105 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\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u53f0\u7063\u4e0d\u518d\u76f8\u4fe1\u7f8e\u570b\u6703\uff08\u6216\u53ef\u80fd\uff09\u4ee3\u8868\u5b83\u9032\u884c\u5e72\u9810\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u6703\u90a3\u9ebc\u9f13\u52f5\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u767c\u52d5\u7368\u7acb\u6230\u722d\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c\u9451\u65bc\u6709\u95dc\u53f0\u7063\u6b66\u88dd\u90e8\u968a\u58eb\u6c23\u4f4e\u843d\u4ee5\u53ca\u570b\u9632\u958b\u652f\u4f4e\uff08\u7d04\u4f54 GDP \u7684 2%\uff09\u7684\u5831\u5c0e\uff0c\u5c0d\u73fe\u72c0\u7684\u885d\u64ca\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u662f\u5f62\u52e2\u6240\u9700\u8981\u7684\u3002 \u7121\u8ad6\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u5c0d\u6b66\u529b\u5a01\u8105\u7684\u4f9d\u8cf4\u4e26\u4e0d\u7b49\u540c\u65bc\u5b8c\u5168\u6392\u9664\u4f7f\u7528\u6b66\u529b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u662f\u5426\u6703\u4f7f\u7528\u6b66\u529b\uff0c\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\u59cb\u7d42\u5b58\u5728\u6b67\u7fa9\u3002 Conclusion: Deterrence and Reassurance 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\u7e3d\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u7834\u5de2\u6230\u7565\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u4e0d\u63a1\u53d6\u4efb\u4f55\u88ab\u4e2d\u570b\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u89e3\u8b80\u70ba\u6230\u722d\u884c\u70ba\u7684\u884c\u52d5\u3002\u5728\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5317\u4eac\u771f\u7684\u8a8d\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7a4d\u6975\u7684\u4ea4\u6230\u570b\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5c0d\u7f8e\u8ecd\u767c\u52d5\u5148\u767c\u88fd\u4eba\u7684\u6253\u64ca\u3002\u5fc5\u9808\u8a8d\u771f\u8003\u616e\u9019\u7a2e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002 \u5e7e\u4e4e\u6c92\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u96f6\u885d\u7a81\u98a8\u96aa\u5730\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5927\u9678\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u3002\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u5341\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u4fb5\u7565\u4e26\u964d\u4f4e\u5927\u570b\u885d\u7a81\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u9075\u5faa\u4e0a\u8ff0\u8def\u5f91\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u767c\u751f\u6230\u722d\uff0c\u5247\u7834\u5de2\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u548c\u5e73\uff0c\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bb9\u5fcd\u7684\u73fe\u72c0\u3002 \u300a\u7834\u5de2\uff1a\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u81fa\u7063\u300b\u7684\u5169\u540d\u4f5c\u8005 Jared M. McKinney \u535a\u58eb\u662f\u7a7a\u8ecd\u5927\u5b78\u7814\u7a76\u751f\u5c08\u696d\u8ecd\u4e8b\u6559\u80b2\u5b78\u9662\u6230\u7565\u8207\u5b89\u5168\u7814\u7a76\u7cfb\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u300a\u5370\u592a\u4e8b\u52d9\u96dc\u8a8c\u300b\u7684\u8a55\u8ad6\u7de8\u8f2f\u3002 Peter Harris \u535a\u58eb\u662f\u79d1\u7f85\u62c9\u591a\u5dde\u7acb\u5927\u5b78\u653f\u6cbb\u5b78\u526f\u6559\u6388\u548c\u300a\u5370\u592a\u4e8b\u52d9\u96dc\u8a8c\u300b\u7684 Indo-Pacific Perspectives \u7de8\u8f2f\u3002 (\u5168\u6587\u5b8c)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pingtungtimes.com.tw\/?p=136120\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_TW\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u6065\u898b\u7f8e\u570b\u58ae\u843d\u3000\u70ba\u8eb2\u5728\u81fa\u7063\u8eab\u5f8c\u7684\u6488\u5ba2 - \u5c4f\u6771\u6642\u5831\u96fb\u5b50\u5831\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u3010\u674e\u91cd\u5fb7\uff0f\u5c08\u6b04\u5831\u5c0e2023\/03\/01\u3011\u3000\u91cd\u5fb7\u6628\u5929\u63a5\u5230\u4e00\u4f4d\u672c\u6703(\u9ad8\u96c4\u5e02\u4e2d\u5c0f\u4f01\u696d\u5354\u6703)\u7684\u9ad8\u7d1a\u9867\u554f\u767c\u4f86\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u7db2\u9801\uff0c\u90a3\u662f\u520a\u767b\u300a\u7f8e\u570b\u9678\u8ecd\u6230\u722d\u5b78\u9662\u5b63\u520a\uff1a\u53c3\u6578\u300b\u5728\u51ac\u5b63 11-17-2021\u51fa\u520a\u7684\u7b2c51\u5377\u7b2c4\u7ae0\u7b2c4\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u984c\u76ee\u662f\uff1aBroken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan\uff0c\u8b6f\u6210\u4e2d\u6587\u5c31\u662f\u300a\u7834\u5de2\uff1a\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u81fa\u7063\u300b\u3002 \u7531\u65bc\u8a72\u6587\u4e26\u7121\u4eba\u7ffb\u8b6f\u6210\u4e2d\u6587(\u5982\u672c\u6587\u4e4b\u672b\u6240\u6a19\u793a)\uff0c\u91cd\u5fb7 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\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u91cd\u5fb7\u5728\u672c\u6587\u4e4b\u672b\u8b39\u6b64\u7c72\u8acb\u6240\u6709\u7684\u81fa\u7063\u4eba\u8981\u81ea\u7acb\u81ea\u5f37\uff0c\u8981\u5411\u81fa\u7a4d\u96fb\u4ee5\u53ca\u7121\u6578\u7684\u81fa\u7063\u5546\u754c\u82f1\u96c4\u5b78\u7fd2\u4ed6\u5011\u596e\u9032\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u8981\u50cf\u7121\u6578\u7684\u81fa\u7063\u6148\u5584\u5bb6\u4e00\u6a23\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5149\u548c\u71b1\u8b93\u8a31\u591a\u6697\u9ed1\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u8271\u82e6\u751f\u9748\u5206\u4eab\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u6211\u5011\u81fa\u7063\u4eba\u5c07\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u6d3b\u5f97\u66f4\u5be6\u5728\u4e5f\u66f4\u6709\u50f9\u503c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u300c\u7f8e\u4eba\u975e\u53ef\u4f9d\uff0c\u81fa\u7063\u7576\u81ea\u5f37\u300d\u3002 \u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u6230\u722d\u5b78\u9662\u6bc0\u53f0\u8a08\u5283\u539f\u6587\uff08Destructive plan of Taiwan) https:\/\/press.armywarcollege.edu\/cgi\/viewcontent.cgi?article=3089&context=parameters \u674e\u91cd\u5fb7 \u7ffb\u8b6f 2023\/2\/28 \u7f8e\u570b\u9678\u8ecd\u6230\u722d\u5b78\u9662\u5b63\u520a\uff1a\u53c3\u6578 \u7b2c 51 \u5377\u7b2c 4 \u689d\u7b2c 4 \u689d \u51ac\u5b63 11-17-2021 \u7834\u5de2\uff1a\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u00a0Jared M. McKinney Peter Harris \u6309\u7167\u9019\u500b\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u4f5c\u54c1\u5728https:\/\/press.armywarcollege.edu\/parameters \u90e8\u5206\u4e2d\u570b\u7814\u7a76\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u570b\u9632\u8207\u5b89\u5168\u7814\u7a76\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u5916\u4ea4\u6b77\u53f2\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u502b\u7406\u8207\u653f\u6cbb\u54f2\u5b78\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u570b\u969b\u95dc\u4fc2\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u8ecd\u4e8b\u6b77\u53f2\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u8ecd\u4e8b\u3001\u6230\u722d\u8207\u548c\u5e73\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u6cd5\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u5176\u4ed6\u516c\u5171\u4e8b\u52d9\u3001\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u516c\u5171\u884c\u653f\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u8a2d\u8a08\u3001\u5206\u6790\u548c\u8a55\u4f30\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u6b77\u53f2\u3001\u7406\u8ad6\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u6b77\u53f2\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u7e3d\u7d71\/\u884c\u653f\u90e8\u9580\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u516c\u5171\u4e8b\u52d9\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u6230\u7565\u7ba1\u7406\u653f\u7b56\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u548c\u7f8e\u570b\u6b77\u53f2\u516c\u5730 \u63a8\u85a6\u5f15\u6587 Jared M. McKinney & Peter Harris, "Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan," Parameters 51, no. 4 (2021): 23-36, doi:10.55540\/0031-1723.3089. \u672c\u6587\u7531 USAWC Press \u63d0\u4f9b\u7d66\u60a8\u514d\u8cbb\u548c\u958b\u653e\u8a2a\u554f\u3002\u5b83\u5df2\u88ab USAWC \u51fa\u7248\u793e\u7684\u6388\u6b0a\u7de8\u8f2f\u63a5\u53d7\u4e26\u6536\u9304\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u9678\u8ecd\u6230\u722d\u5b78\u9662\u5b63\u520a\uff1a\u53c3\u6578\u4e2d\u3002 \u904f\u5236\u4e9e\u6d32\u7684\u4fb5\u7565 Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan \u7834\u5de2\uff1a\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063 Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris \u00a92021 Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris \u6458\u8981\uff1a\u901a\u904e\u91cf\u8eab\u5b9a\u5236\u7684\u4e00\u652c\u5b50\u5a01\u61fe\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u800c\u4e0d\u9b6f\u83bd\u5730\u5a01\u8105\u5927\u570b\u6230\u722d\uff0c\u65e2\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u50c5\u50c5\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u53f0\u7063\u800c\u6230\u6216\u653e\u68c4\u53f0\u7063\u3002\u672c\u6587\u5c07\u5c0d\u5a01\u61fe\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u7406\u89e3\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u6230\u7565\u601d\u60f3\u548c\u6587\u5316\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\u8b49\u64da\u76f8\u7d50\u5408\uff0c\u4ee5\u69cb\u5efa\u9019\u6a23\u4e00\u7a2e\u6230\u7565\u3002 Introduction \u4ecb \u7d39 \u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b (PRC) 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\u5982\u679c\u5be6\u65bd\u5f97\u7576\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u6230\u7565\u53ef\u4ee5\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u6e1b\u5c11\u5927\u570b\u4e4b\u9593\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u885d\u7a81\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5982\u679c\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5584\u610f\u52aa\u529b\u76f8\u7d50\u5408\uff0c\u4f7f\u73fe\u72c0\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u53f0\u7063\u5169\u570b\u90fd\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5bb9\u5fcd\u7684\u8a71\u3002 The Threat of War \u6230\u722d\u7684\u5a01\u8105 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McKinney \u535a\u58eb\u662f\u7a7a\u8ecd\u5927\u5b78\u7814\u7a76\u751f\u5c08\u696d\u8ecd\u4e8b\u6559\u80b2\u5b78\u9662\u6230\u7565\u8207\u5b89\u5168\u7814\u7a76\u7cfb\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u300a\u5370\u592a\u4e8b\u52d9\u96dc\u8a8c\u300b\u7684\u8a55\u8ad6\u7de8\u8f2f\u3002 Peter Harris \u535a\u58eb\u662f\u79d1\u7f85\u62c9\u591a\u5dde\u7acb\u5927\u5b78\u653f\u6cbb\u5b78\u526f\u6559\u6388\u548c\u300a\u5370\u592a\u4e8b\u52d9\u96dc\u8a8c\u300b\u7684 Indo-Pacific Perspectives \u7de8\u8f2f\u3002 (\u5168\u6587\u5b8c)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/pingtungtimes.com.tw\/?p=136120\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"\u5c4f\u6771\u6642\u5831\u96fb\u5b50\u5831\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pingtungnews\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-03-03T14:59:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" 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\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u91cd\u5fb7\u5728\u672c\u6587\u4e4b\u672b\u8b39\u6b64\u7c72\u8acb\u6240\u6709\u7684\u81fa\u7063\u4eba\u8981\u81ea\u7acb\u81ea\u5f37\uff0c\u8981\u5411\u81fa\u7a4d\u96fb\u4ee5\u53ca\u7121\u6578\u7684\u81fa\u7063\u5546\u754c\u82f1\u96c4\u5b78\u7fd2\u4ed6\u5011\u596e\u9032\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u8981\u50cf\u7121\u6578\u7684\u81fa\u7063\u6148\u5584\u5bb6\u4e00\u6a23\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5149\u548c\u71b1\u8b93\u8a31\u591a\u6697\u9ed1\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u8271\u82e6\u751f\u9748\u5206\u4eab\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u6211\u5011\u81fa\u7063\u4eba\u5c07\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u6d3b\u5f97\u66f4\u5be6\u5728\u4e5f\u66f4\u6709\u50f9\u503c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u300c\u7f8e\u4eba\u975e\u53ef\u4f9d\uff0c\u81fa\u7063\u7576\u81ea\u5f37\u300d\u3002 \u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u6230\u722d\u5b78\u9662\u6bc0\u53f0\u8a08\u5283\u539f\u6587\uff08Destructive plan of Taiwan) https:\\\/\\\/press.armywarcollege.edu\\\/cgi\\\/viewcontent.cgi?article=3089&context=parameters \u674e\u91cd\u5fb7 \u7ffb\u8b6f 2023\\\/2\\\/28 \u7f8e\u570b\u9678\u8ecd\u6230\u722d\u5b78\u9662\u5b63\u520a\uff1a\u53c3\u6578 \u7b2c 51 \u5377\u7b2c 4 \u689d\u7b2c 4 \u689d \u51ac\u5b63 11-17-2021 \u7834\u5de2\uff1a\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u00a0Jared M. McKinney Peter Harris \u6309\u7167\u9019\u500b\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u4f5c\u54c1\u5728https:\\\/\\\/press.armywarcollege.edu\\\/parameters \u90e8\u5206\u4e2d\u570b\u7814\u7a76\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u570b\u9632\u8207\u5b89\u5168\u7814\u7a76\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u5916\u4ea4\u6b77\u53f2\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u502b\u7406\u8207\u653f\u6cbb\u54f2\u5b78\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u570b\u969b\u95dc\u4fc2\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u8ecd\u4e8b\u6b77\u53f2\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u8ecd\u4e8b\u3001\u6230\u722d\u8207\u548c\u5e73\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u6cd5\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u5176\u4ed6\u516c\u5171\u4e8b\u52d9\u3001\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u516c\u5171\u884c\u653f\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u8a2d\u8a08\u3001\u5206\u6790\u548c\u8a55\u4f30\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u6b77\u53f2\u3001\u7406\u8ad6\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u6b77\u53f2\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u7e3d\u7d71\\\/\u884c\u653f\u90e8\u9580\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u516c\u5171\u4e8b\u52d9\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u6230\u7565\u7ba1\u7406\u653f\u7b56\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u548c\u7f8e\u570b\u6b77\u53f2\u516c\u5730 \u63a8\u85a6\u5f15\u6587 Jared M. McKinney & Peter Harris, \\\"Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan,\\\" Parameters 51, no. 4 (2021): 23-36, doi:10.55540\\\/0031-1723.3089. \u672c\u6587\u7531 USAWC Press \u63d0\u4f9b\u7d66\u60a8\u514d\u8cbb\u548c\u958b\u653e\u8a2a\u554f\u3002\u5b83\u5df2\u88ab USAWC \u51fa\u7248\u793e\u7684\u6388\u6b0a\u7de8\u8f2f\u63a5\u53d7\u4e26\u6536\u9304\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u9678\u8ecd\u6230\u722d\u5b78\u9662\u5b63\u520a\uff1a\u53c3\u6578\u4e2d\u3002 \u904f\u5236\u4e9e\u6d32\u7684\u4fb5\u7565 Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan \u7834\u5de2\uff1a\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063 Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris \u00a92021 Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris \u6458\u8981\uff1a\u901a\u904e\u91cf\u8eab\u5b9a\u5236\u7684\u4e00\u652c\u5b50\u5a01\u61fe\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u800c\u4e0d\u9b6f\u83bd\u5730\u5a01\u8105\u5927\u570b\u6230\u722d\uff0c\u65e2\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u50c5\u50c5\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u53f0\u7063\u800c\u6230\u6216\u653e\u68c4\u53f0\u7063\u3002\u672c\u6587\u5c07\u5c0d\u5a01\u61fe\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u7406\u89e3\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u6230\u7565\u601d\u60f3\u548c\u6587\u5316\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\u8b49\u64da\u76f8\u7d50\u5408\uff0c\u4ee5\u69cb\u5efa\u9019\u6a23\u4e00\u7a2e\u6230\u7565\u3002 Introduction \u4ecb \u7d39 \u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b (PRC) \u5192\u8457\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u53ca\u5176\u76df\u53cb\u958b\u6230\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u6703\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\uff1f\u904e\u53bb\uff0c\u5f88\u660e\u986f\u5317\u4eac\u6c92\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u5c31\u5176\u8ecd\u968a\u7121\u6cd5\u53d6\u52dd\u7684\u53f0\u7063\u767c\u52d5\u6230\u722d\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u61f7\u7591\u4e2d\u570b\u80fd\u5426\u901a\u904e\u6b66\u529b\u963b\u6b62\u53f0\u7063\u7d71\u4e00\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u8072\u7a31\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u4e0d\u518d\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u4fdd\u885b\u53f0\u5317\u7684\u524d\u666f\u611f\u5230\u6050\u61fc\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5317\u4eac\u9ad8\u5c64\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u76f8\u4fe1\u5b83\u6703\u5728\u53f0\u7063\u6230\u722d\u4e2d\u7372\u52dd\u3002 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\u5982\u679c\u5be6\u65bd\u5f97\u7576\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u6230\u7565\u53ef\u4ee5\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u6e1b\u5c11\u5927\u570b\u4e4b\u9593\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u885d\u7a81\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5982\u679c\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5584\u610f\u52aa\u529b\u76f8\u7d50\u5408\uff0c\u4f7f\u73fe\u72c0\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u53f0\u7063\u5169\u570b\u90fd\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5bb9\u5fcd\u7684\u8a71\u3002 The Threat of War \u6230\u722d\u7684\u5a01\u8105 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\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u91cd\u5fb7\u5728\u672c\u6587\u4e4b\u672b\u8b39\u6b64\u7c72\u8acb\u6240\u6709\u7684\u81fa\u7063\u4eba\u8981\u81ea\u7acb\u81ea\u5f37\uff0c\u8981\u5411\u81fa\u7a4d\u96fb\u4ee5\u53ca\u7121\u6578\u7684\u81fa\u7063\u5546\u754c\u82f1\u96c4\u5b78\u7fd2\u4ed6\u5011\u596e\u9032\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u8981\u50cf\u7121\u6578\u7684\u81fa\u7063\u6148\u5584\u5bb6\u4e00\u6a23\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5149\u548c\u71b1\u8b93\u8a31\u591a\u6697\u9ed1\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u8271\u82e6\u751f\u9748\u5206\u4eab\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u6211\u5011\u81fa\u7063\u4eba\u5c07\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u6d3b\u5f97\u66f4\u5be6\u5728\u4e5f\u66f4\u6709\u50f9\u503c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u300c\u7f8e\u4eba\u975e\u53ef\u4f9d\uff0c\u81fa\u7063\u7576\u81ea\u5f37\u300d\u3002 \u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u6230\u722d\u5b78\u9662\u6bc0\u53f0\u8a08\u5283\u539f\u6587\uff08Destructive plan of Taiwan) https:\/\/press.armywarcollege.edu\/cgi\/viewcontent.cgi?article=3089&context=parameters \u674e\u91cd\u5fb7 \u7ffb\u8b6f 2023\/2\/28 \u7f8e\u570b\u9678\u8ecd\u6230\u722d\u5b78\u9662\u5b63\u520a\uff1a\u53c3\u6578 \u7b2c 51 \u5377\u7b2c 4 \u689d\u7b2c 4 \u689d \u51ac\u5b63 11-17-2021 \u7834\u5de2\uff1a\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u00a0Jared M. McKinney Peter Harris \u6309\u7167\u9019\u500b\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u4f5c\u54c1\u5728https:\/\/press.armywarcollege.edu\/parameters \u90e8\u5206\u4e2d\u570b\u7814\u7a76\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u570b\u9632\u8207\u5b89\u5168\u7814\u7a76\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u5916\u4ea4\u6b77\u53f2\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u502b\u7406\u8207\u653f\u6cbb\u54f2\u5b78\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u570b\u969b\u95dc\u4fc2\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u8ecd\u4e8b\u6b77\u53f2\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u8ecd\u4e8b\u3001\u6230\u722d\u8207\u548c\u5e73\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u6cd5\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u5176\u4ed6\u516c\u5171\u4e8b\u52d9\u3001\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u516c\u5171\u884c\u653f\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u8a2d\u8a08\u3001\u5206\u6790\u548c\u8a55\u4f30\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u6b77\u53f2\u3001\u7406\u8ad6\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u6b77\u53f2\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u7e3d\u7d71\/\u884c\u653f\u90e8\u9580\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u516c\u5171\u4e8b\u52d9\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u6230\u7565\u7ba1\u7406\u653f\u7b56\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u548c\u7f8e\u570b\u6b77\u53f2\u516c\u5730 \u63a8\u85a6\u5f15\u6587 Jared M. McKinney & Peter Harris, \"Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan,\" Parameters 51, no. 4 (2021): 23-36, doi:10.55540\/0031-1723.3089. \u672c\u6587\u7531 USAWC Press \u63d0\u4f9b\u7d66\u60a8\u514d\u8cbb\u548c\u958b\u653e\u8a2a\u554f\u3002\u5b83\u5df2\u88ab USAWC \u51fa\u7248\u793e\u7684\u6388\u6b0a\u7de8\u8f2f\u63a5\u53d7\u4e26\u6536\u9304\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u9678\u8ecd\u6230\u722d\u5b78\u9662\u5b63\u520a\uff1a\u53c3\u6578\u4e2d\u3002 \u904f\u5236\u4e9e\u6d32\u7684\u4fb5\u7565 Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan \u7834\u5de2\uff1a\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063 Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris \u00a92021 Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris \u6458\u8981\uff1a\u901a\u904e\u91cf\u8eab\u5b9a\u5236\u7684\u4e00\u652c\u5b50\u5a01\u61fe\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u800c\u4e0d\u9b6f\u83bd\u5730\u5a01\u8105\u5927\u570b\u6230\u722d\uff0c\u65e2\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u50c5\u50c5\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u53f0\u7063\u800c\u6230\u6216\u653e\u68c4\u53f0\u7063\u3002\u672c\u6587\u5c07\u5c0d\u5a01\u61fe\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u7406\u89e3\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u6230\u7565\u601d\u60f3\u548c\u6587\u5316\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\u8b49\u64da\u76f8\u7d50\u5408\uff0c\u4ee5\u69cb\u5efa\u9019\u6a23\u4e00\u7a2e\u6230\u7565\u3002 Introduction \u4ecb \u7d39 \u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b (PRC) 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\u5982\u679c\u5be6\u65bd\u5f97\u7576\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u6230\u7565\u53ef\u4ee5\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u6e1b\u5c11\u5927\u570b\u4e4b\u9593\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u885d\u7a81\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5982\u679c\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5584\u610f\u52aa\u529b\u76f8\u7d50\u5408\uff0c\u4f7f\u73fe\u72c0\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u53f0\u7063\u5169\u570b\u90fd\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5bb9\u5fcd\u7684\u8a71\u3002 The Threat of War \u6230\u722d\u7684\u5a01\u8105 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\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u91cd\u5fb7\u5728\u672c\u6587\u4e4b\u672b\u8b39\u6b64\u7c72\u8acb\u6240\u6709\u7684\u81fa\u7063\u4eba\u8981\u81ea\u7acb\u81ea\u5f37\uff0c\u8981\u5411\u81fa\u7a4d\u96fb\u4ee5\u53ca\u7121\u6578\u7684\u81fa\u7063\u5546\u754c\u82f1\u96c4\u5b78\u7fd2\u4ed6\u5011\u596e\u9032\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u8981\u50cf\u7121\u6578\u7684\u81fa\u7063\u6148\u5584\u5bb6\u4e00\u6a23\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5149\u548c\u71b1\u8b93\u8a31\u591a\u6697\u9ed1\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u8271\u82e6\u751f\u9748\u5206\u4eab\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u6211\u5011\u81fa\u7063\u4eba\u5c07\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u6d3b\u5f97\u66f4\u5be6\u5728\u4e5f\u66f4\u6709\u50f9\u503c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u300c\u7f8e\u4eba\u975e\u53ef\u4f9d\uff0c\u81fa\u7063\u7576\u81ea\u5f37\u300d\u3002 \u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u6230\u722d\u5b78\u9662\u6bc0\u53f0\u8a08\u5283\u539f\u6587\uff08Destructive plan of Taiwan) https:\/\/press.armywarcollege.edu\/cgi\/viewcontent.cgi?article=3089&context=parameters \u674e\u91cd\u5fb7 \u7ffb\u8b6f 2023\/2\/28 \u7f8e\u570b\u9678\u8ecd\u6230\u722d\u5b78\u9662\u5b63\u520a\uff1a\u53c3\u6578 \u7b2c 51 \u5377\u7b2c 4 \u689d\u7b2c 4 \u689d \u51ac\u5b63 11-17-2021 \u7834\u5de2\uff1a\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u00a0Jared M. McKinney Peter Harris \u6309\u7167\u9019\u500b\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u4f5c\u54c1\u5728https:\/\/press.armywarcollege.edu\/parameters \u90e8\u5206\u4e2d\u570b\u7814\u7a76\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u570b\u9632\u8207\u5b89\u5168\u7814\u7a76\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u5916\u4ea4\u6b77\u53f2\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u502b\u7406\u8207\u653f\u6cbb\u54f2\u5b78\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u570b\u969b\u95dc\u4fc2\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u8ecd\u4e8b\u6b77\u53f2\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u8ecd\u4e8b\u3001\u6230\u722d\u8207\u548c\u5e73\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u6cd5\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u5176\u4ed6\u516c\u5171\u4e8b\u52d9\u3001\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u516c\u5171\u884c\u653f\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u8a2d\u8a08\u3001\u5206\u6790\u548c\u8a55\u4f30\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u6b77\u53f2\u3001\u7406\u8ad6\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u6b77\u53f2\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u7e3d\u7d71\/\u884c\u653f\u90e8\u9580\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u516c\u5171\u4e8b\u52d9\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u6230\u7565\u7ba1\u7406\u653f\u7b56\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u548c\u7f8e\u570b\u6b77\u53f2\u516c\u5730 \u63a8\u85a6\u5f15\u6587 Jared M. McKinney & Peter Harris, \"Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan,\" Parameters 51, no. 4 (2021): 23-36, doi:10.55540\/0031-1723.3089. \u672c\u6587\u7531 USAWC Press \u63d0\u4f9b\u7d66\u60a8\u514d\u8cbb\u548c\u958b\u653e\u8a2a\u554f\u3002\u5b83\u5df2\u88ab USAWC \u51fa\u7248\u793e\u7684\u6388\u6b0a\u7de8\u8f2f\u63a5\u53d7\u4e26\u6536\u9304\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u9678\u8ecd\u6230\u722d\u5b78\u9662\u5b63\u520a\uff1a\u53c3\u6578\u4e2d\u3002 \u904f\u5236\u4e9e\u6d32\u7684\u4fb5\u7565 Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan \u7834\u5de2\uff1a\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063 Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris \u00a92021 Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris \u6458\u8981\uff1a\u901a\u904e\u91cf\u8eab\u5b9a\u5236\u7684\u4e00\u652c\u5b50\u5a01\u61fe\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u800c\u4e0d\u9b6f\u83bd\u5730\u5a01\u8105\u5927\u570b\u6230\u722d\uff0c\u65e2\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u50c5\u50c5\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u53f0\u7063\u800c\u6230\u6216\u653e\u68c4\u53f0\u7063\u3002\u672c\u6587\u5c07\u5c0d\u5a01\u61fe\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u7406\u89e3\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u6230\u7565\u601d\u60f3\u548c\u6587\u5316\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\u8b49\u64da\u76f8\u7d50\u5408\uff0c\u4ee5\u69cb\u5efa\u9019\u6a23\u4e00\u7a2e\u6230\u7565\u3002 Introduction \u4ecb \u7d39 \u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b (PRC) 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\u5982\u679c\u5be6\u65bd\u5f97\u7576\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u6230\u7565\u53ef\u4ee5\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u6e1b\u5c11\u5927\u570b\u4e4b\u9593\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u885d\u7a81\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5982\u679c\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5584\u610f\u52aa\u529b\u76f8\u7d50\u5408\uff0c\u4f7f\u73fe\u72c0\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u53f0\u7063\u5169\u570b\u90fd\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5bb9\u5fcd\u7684\u8a71\u3002 The Threat of War \u6230\u722d\u7684\u5a01\u8105 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\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u91cd\u5fb7\u5728\u672c\u6587\u4e4b\u672b\u8b39\u6b64\u7c72\u8acb\u6240\u6709\u7684\u81fa\u7063\u4eba\u8981\u81ea\u7acb\u81ea\u5f37\uff0c\u8981\u5411\u81fa\u7a4d\u96fb\u4ee5\u53ca\u7121\u6578\u7684\u81fa\u7063\u5546\u754c\u82f1\u96c4\u5b78\u7fd2\u4ed6\u5011\u596e\u9032\u7684\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u8981\u50cf\u7121\u6578\u7684\u81fa\u7063\u6148\u5584\u5bb6\u4e00\u6a23\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5149\u548c\u71b1\u8b93\u8a31\u591a\u6697\u9ed1\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u8271\u82e6\u751f\u9748\u5206\u4eab\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u6211\u5011\u81fa\u7063\u4eba\u5c07\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u6d3b\u5f97\u66f4\u5be6\u5728\u4e5f\u66f4\u6709\u50f9\u503c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u300c\u7f8e\u4eba\u975e\u53ef\u4f9d\uff0c\u81fa\u7063\u7576\u81ea\u5f37\u300d\u3002 \u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u6230\u722d\u5b78\u9662\u6bc0\u53f0\u8a08\u5283\u539f\u6587\uff08Destructive plan of Taiwan) https:\/\/press.armywarcollege.edu\/cgi\/viewcontent.cgi?article=3089&context=parameters \u674e\u91cd\u5fb7 \u7ffb\u8b6f 2023\/2\/28 \u7f8e\u570b\u9678\u8ecd\u6230\u722d\u5b78\u9662\u5b63\u520a\uff1a\u53c3\u6578 \u7b2c 51 \u5377\u7b2c 4 \u689d\u7b2c 4 \u689d \u51ac\u5b63 11-17-2021 \u7834\u5de2\uff1a\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u00a0Jared M. McKinney Peter Harris \u6309\u7167\u9019\u500b\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u4f5c\u54c1\u5728https:\/\/press.armywarcollege.edu\/parameters \u90e8\u5206\u4e2d\u570b\u7814\u7a76\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u570b\u9632\u8207\u5b89\u5168\u7814\u7a76\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u5916\u4ea4\u6b77\u53f2\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u502b\u7406\u8207\u653f\u6cbb\u54f2\u5b78\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u570b\u969b\u95dc\u4fc2\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u8ecd\u4e8b\u6b77\u53f2\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u8ecd\u4e8b\u3001\u6230\u722d\u8207\u548c\u5e73\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u6cd5\u5171\u4eab\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u5176\u4ed6\u516c\u5171\u4e8b\u52d9\u3001\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u516c\u5171\u884c\u653f\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u8a2d\u8a08\u3001\u5206\u6790\u548c\u8a55\u4f30\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u6b77\u53f2\u3001\u7406\u8ad6\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u6b77\u53f2\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u7e3d\u7d71\/\u884c\u653f\u90e8\u9580\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u516c\u5171\u4e8b\u52d9\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u6230\u7565\u7ba1\u7406\u653f\u7b56\u516c\u5171\u8cc7\u6e90\u548c\u7f8e\u570b\u6b77\u53f2\u516c\u5730 \u63a8\u85a6\u5f15\u6587 Jared M. McKinney & Peter Harris, \"Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan,\" Parameters 51, no. 4 (2021): 23-36, doi:10.55540\/0031-1723.3089. \u672c\u6587\u7531 USAWC Press \u63d0\u4f9b\u7d66\u60a8\u514d\u8cbb\u548c\u958b\u653e\u8a2a\u554f\u3002\u5b83\u5df2\u88ab USAWC \u51fa\u7248\u793e\u7684\u6388\u6b0a\u7de8\u8f2f\u63a5\u53d7\u4e26\u6536\u9304\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u9678\u8ecd\u6230\u722d\u5b78\u9662\u5b63\u520a\uff1a\u53c3\u6578\u4e2d\u3002 \u904f\u5236\u4e9e\u6d32\u7684\u4fb5\u7565 Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan \u7834\u5de2\uff1a\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063 Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris \u00a92021 Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris \u6458\u8981\uff1a\u901a\u904e\u91cf\u8eab\u5b9a\u5236\u7684\u4e00\u652c\u5b50\u5a01\u61fe\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\u800c\u4e0d\u9b6f\u83bd\u5730\u5a01\u8105\u5927\u570b\u6230\u722d\uff0c\u65e2\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u50c5\u50c5\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u53f0\u7063\u800c\u6230\u6216\u653e\u68c4\u53f0\u7063\u3002\u672c\u6587\u5c07\u5c0d\u5a01\u61fe\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u7406\u89e3\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u6230\u7565\u601d\u60f3\u548c\u6587\u5316\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\u8b49\u64da\u76f8\u7d50\u5408\uff0c\u4ee5\u69cb\u5efa\u9019\u6a23\u4e00\u7a2e\u6230\u7565\u3002 Introduction \u4ecb \u7d39 \u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b (PRC) 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\u5982\u679c\u5be6\u65bd\u5f97\u7576\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u6230\u7565\u53ef\u4ee5\u963b\u6b62\u4e2d\u570b\u5165\u4fb5\u53f0\u7063\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u6e1b\u5c11\u5927\u570b\u4e4b\u9593\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u885d\u7a81\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5982\u679c\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5584\u610f\u52aa\u529b\u76f8\u7d50\u5408\uff0c\u4f7f\u73fe\u72c0\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u53f0\u7063\u5169\u570b\u90fd\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5bb9\u5fcd\u7684\u8a71\u3002 The Threat of War \u6230\u722d\u7684\u5a01\u8105 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